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Colorado Resources: Positioning Yourself for Success in this New Gold Bull Market

Colorado Resources

We’re currently in the first correction stage of this new gold bull market. When will we exit the correction? It’s hard to say, maybe it’s happening now. What I do know, is that we need to take advantage of this weakness in the gold price and the junior market to buy quality companies that will set us up for profits when the market turns up.

With regards to catalysts for a market turn around in the juniors, one thought I have is that it may be brought about by discovery. Over the first 5 months of 2017, we have seen a few hundred million dollars fed into the junior market via financing, setting us up for discovery possibilities as soon as right now, in some explorations camps.

Whether it be in the Urban Barry Camp in Quebec’s Abitibi Greenstone Belt or a company in BC’s Golden Triangle, discovery excitement is contagious and something that I believe could set the next leg of the bull market on fire.

Today, I have for you a company which is set to bring short term PUSH with a 7500 m drill program on their 30,000 hectare KSP property in BC’s Golden Triangle. This company is Colorado Resources – let’s take a look!

 

 

Colorado Resources (CXO:TSXV)

MCAP – 26.9 million (At the time of writing)

Shares – 94,820,386 (as of April 2, 2017)

Fully Diluted Shares – 112,362,482

  • Warrants – see corporate presentation or SEDAR for most accurate information. The warrants range from a low of $0.13 to $0.60, with around 2 million expiring in 2017, more than half in 2018, and the remaining 4.4 million in 2019.

Cash – Around $6.5 million, of which $4.3 million is flow-through

Management Ownership – Approximately 6 million shares or roughly 6%

 

Colorado’s People

Colorado Resources is led by President and CEO, Adam Travis. Travis is a geologist by trade and gained his work experience with Keewatin Engineering, the Ron Netolitzky group of companies, and Hunter Dickinson group of companies. This work experience is especially pertinent to Travis’ current pursuit, exploration in BC’s Golden Triangle.

For those who aren’t aware, Ron Netolitzky and his associated companies have a history of success in the mining industry, in particular, within the Golden Triangle. A few of the highlights of his great career are the discovery of the Snip gold deposit and the massive Eskay Creek deposit.

With Travis and Colorado’s KSP property in the Golden Triangle, I’m not sure you could ask for better experience than working with Netolitzky.

Also, Travis started his own private company, Cazador Resources. Cazador was focused on the purchase of highly prospective properties which were later optioned by other prominent junior mining companies, such as Skeena Resources and Ascot Resources. This entrepreneurial attitude will translate well in Colorado, as a CEO must have this attribute to be successful.

The strength of a junior company, especially those focused on exploration, is highly correlated to the strength of the team doing the exploring. In Colorado’s case, I think this may be the aspect that stands out the most for me, as Travis has surrounded himself with a group of people that have extensive exploration experience in the Golden Triangle, which, most importantly, was successful, and as an added bonus, have worked together in different capacities over the past 20 years.

Beginning with Dr. Jim Oliver, who is Colorado’s chief geoscientist. Oliver has over 25 years of experience within the mining industry, having worked for both junior and major mining companies over the course of his career. Most recently, Oliver was VP of geology for the Hunter Dickinson Group of Companies before joining the Colorado team.

Also, Colorado has an extensive technical team which bring an added dimension to this junior exploration company. Here is a comment by Blanchard on the Technical Advisory Committee,

“Our technical advisory team are recognized experts in their respective fields and provide additional expertise in geophysics and geology with projects in this area of BC and these types of deposits.  Adam has been lucky to work with some very accomplished mining people throughout his career.  He spent the early years of his career with Keewatin Engineering (Ron Netolitzky and Larry Nagy) and also spent 5 years with Hunter Dickinson working with some of the best exploration geos in the business.  The relationships he developed and the support of our advisory board has been very valuable to Colorado.  It is always good to get 2nd and 3rd opinions and interpretations of your data.  Our team is as good as you get in this business and they all work very well together.”

 

Technical Advisory Committee:

  • Mark Rebagliati is a geological engineer with a good portion of his career spent with the Hunter Dickinson Group of Companies. Rebagliati is a Canadian Mining Hall of Fame member.
  • Charlie Grieg is a geologist who specializes in geological mapping. His career has spanned over 35 years, bringing him around the world to work numerous projects with Agnico Eagle, Yukon Zinc and Nevsun.
  • David Rhys is a geologist with over 25 years of experience in the mining industry. His expertise is mainly with the interpretation of mine site ore controls and applications of mine geology to local and district scale exploration activities.
  • Alex Walcott is a geophysicist with 20 years of experience in geophysical surveying and consulting around the world.

 

 

BC Politics

For those who don’t know, there was a provincial election in BC on May 9th, which the Liberals won, edging out the NDP.  A Liberal win should result in a status quo for the miners, as the party appears to be set on promoting and supporting mining.

In a letter to the honourable Bill Bennett, the Minister of Energy and Mines, BC Premier, Christy Clark, stated,

“Work with the Ministry of Finance and Geoscience BC to establish long-term, predictable funding to foster oil, gas and mineral exploration and development in BC” ~Minister Letter

Further, BC Hydro completed the $716 million Northwest Transmission Line Project (NTLP), which was provided by the province to supply power to potential industrial developments in northern BC. The new line runs from Skeena Substation north to a new substation near Bob Quinn Lake, a stretch of nearly 344 kilometres (BC Hydro) (Power Line Geography ).

Typically, energy and accessibility are major sticking points for companies that explore in some of the more remote parts of the world. In BC’s case, they are trying to remedy this sticking point by providing the infrastructure needed for junior companies to become producers or, more importantly for the provincial government, to become large employers.

 

Tahltan Territory

On January 26th, 2017 Colorado announced a communications agreement with the Tahltan Central Government (TCG).  The TCG is the governing body of the Tahltan Nation, which works to protect the Aboriginal rights and title, ecosystem and natural resources of the Tahltan community.

Tahltan territory encompasses 93,500 square kilometres in northwestern BC, running parallel to the Alaskan/Canadian border. Their three main communities are Telegraph Creek, Dease Lake and Iskut.

I was able to connect with VP of Corporate Development, Alex Blanchard, and asked him a few questions, one of which was in regards to the TCG. This was his response,

“We have a very good relationship with the TCG and signed a communications agreement with them in January.  Pretivm has worked closely with the TCG through mine development and they have a good working relationship.  I see a strong working relationship between Colorado and the Tahltan in the future.”

The engagement of the TCG well before the development of a mine in the area is a smart move by Colorado management, as a relationship started early on with full disclosure should build trust and, therefore, in my mind, has a higher probability of success in the future.

 

Colorado’s Properties

For this article, I will concentrate on what I think are Colorado’s primary projects, KSP, North ROK and Green Springs. Colorado does own 4 other projects in BC, which are Kinaskan, Kingpin, Hit and Heart Peaks.

KSP Property

  • The KSP property is located in BC’s northwest region, referred to by most as the Golden Triangle. The property is made up of 59 claims covering 30,504 ha and is located approximately 15 km along strike to the southeast of the past producing Snip Mine, which produced over 1 million high grade gold ounces over its mine life.
  • Colorado has the ability to gain an 80% interest in the property with Seabridge Gold, who purchased SnipGold Corp last summer.
    • In a December 20, 2013 news release, Colorado announced they had entered into the agreement with SnipGold for the KSP property. The option agreement included aggregate payments by Colorado of $500,000 and exploration work of $6,000,000 over a 4 year time period for a 51% interest.

The KSP property is large and diverse as Colorado is targeting both high grade gold veins within the Inel Khyber Pass and A-J zones, and bulk tonnage copper-gold mineralization within Sericite Ridge, Josh and Black Bluff zones.

 

There’s a good amount of historical data that’s presented in the May 7th, 2014 news release, outlining the important data that had been compiled by the former explorers of the property.  I will list the data presented for the two most explored zones, Inel and Khyber Pass:

  • Khyber – 1100 soil samples over a 400m x 1200m open ended area averaging 0.810 g/t Au – great grade for a soil sample
  • Khyber – drill testing over a small portion of this soil anomaly returning drill intervals of up to 74.7 m of 2.2 g/t
  • Inel – 1,240 m historical underground development, 192 holes with drill intercepts up to 15.5 m of 13.2 g/t Au. High grade intercepts – S116 (1989) with 7.3m of 20.93 g/t Au; U171 (1990) with 7.4m of 41.1 g/t Au and IS130 (1989) with 3.5m of 423.81 g/t
  • Inel Ridge (500m east of Inel) – veins traced for over 1000 m with drill results up to 29.8 g/t Au over 1.25 m

Check out the KSP page of the Colorado website for further examples of historical drills on the properties’ other zones: Tami, Pins, Sericite Ridge, Josh, Black Buff and A-J.  Also, see SEDAR for further details on historical data.

KSP work completed by Colorado can be found in the following news releases (See SEDAR for the most comprehensive list of news releases):

  • Colorado Resources’ KSP Property Update – September 24th, 2014
  • Colorado Drills 34 m @ 3 g/t Gold and Discovers New Zones at KSP Property – November 5th, 2014
  • KSP Property Update- Colorado Acquires 3 More Gold Showings and Confirms KSP Joint Venture – January 19, 2015
  • Colorado Announces Second New Porphyry Discovery At KSP – October 8th, 2015
  • Colorado Resources Plans 5,000 m Drill Program at KSP Property Inel Area – February 29th, 2016
  • Colorado Resources Announces KSP- Inel Zone Drilling Progress – June 30th, 2016
  • Colorado Resources Reports Assay Results of First 8 of 37 Drill holes Completed to Date at the KSP-Inel Zone – July 19th, 2016
  • Colorado Resources Drills 25.7 m of 9.24 g/t Au at Inel and Expands Drill Program – August 8th, 2016
  • Colorado Continues to Return High Grade Gold from Inel Drilling at KSP District in the Golden Triangle, BC – September 21, 2016
  • Colorado Drills 64 metres of 2.63 g/t Au and Outlines Several New High Grade Trends with > 1 oz/t Gold Intercepts at KSP Project – October 5th, 2016

 

Through the analyzing of historical data and completing their own geophysics and soil sampling, the Colorado team developed targets for their drill programs. In the summer of 2016, 59 holes were drilled for a total of 8,861.8 metres between the Inel, Tami and Khyber Pass zones.

  • 53 holes were drilled at Inel, with hole INDDH16-029 delivering a hit of 1.0m of 165.5 g/t Au and broad low grades which included, hole INDDH16-025 with 99.0m of 2.11 g/t Au.

On May 11th, Colorado released their plan for the KSP’s 2017 summer drill program and have confirmed that they will be drilling 7,500 m which will result in them spending the remaining $4 million dollars on the property to gain an 80% interest. I believe this is a big milestone in Colorado’s history, as the KSP property has a ton of potential, potential which I believe a major will have interest in, especially now that Colorado looks to control 80% of the property.  I would speculate that you could see a major buy a position just under 20%, like so many have been doing in this market cycle, but time will tell.

From the news release,

“A review of the 2016 geochemical data when referenced to last year’s drill program has shown that there are at least 10 soil geochemical anomalies of similar size and strength in the Inel –Khyber area (see News Release dated December 19, 2016 and Table 1) of which only one was tested by our 2016 drill program to shallow depths of approximately 125 m. Reviews of geological and geochemical data along with new geophysical Induced Polarization (I.P.) and Magnetic data have recently been completed and are showing some very compelling targets at depth and along strike of our 2016 drilling.”

Travis comments further in the news release about the mineralization,

“Our 2016 drilling also demonstrated that gold mineralization is not only restricted to the volcanic-sediment contact as previously thought, but is also found within the underlying sedimentary rocks, thus opening up a considerably larger target area. The current geological, geochemical data and geophysical models are also suggesting that the known mineralization outlined over a 400 m x 600 m area in our 2016 drilling is perhaps only a small portion of a much larger system.”

PUSH: This summer’s drill program, if successful, will provide some PUSH to the company’s share price, and for good reason – bigger is better.  The IP and magnetic data are showing some great prospects, especially when compared to where they drilled in 2016, see image below.

 

North ROK

  • The North ROK property, like KSP, is located approximately 190 km north of Stewart in the Golden Triangle, in BC’s northwest. The property consists of 45 claims and is 21,179.89 hectares. Colorado owns 100% of the property, however, some of the claims are subject to a 2% NSR (see SEDAR for further info).
    • Travis’ past at Brett Resources is tied to the North ROK property, because in 2009, while working for Brett Resources, he staked the claim that covers the current Mabon showing. Brett Resources proceeded to carry out initial exploration of the claim, which consisted of silt sampling, prospecting and contour line controlled rock chip sampling.
  • The property is underlain by volcanic and sedimentary rocks of the Upper Triassic, Stuhini Group to Lower Jurassic, Hazelton Group.
  • Accessibility to the property is outlined in the NI 43-101 Technical Report,

“Access to the North ROK property is usually gained by taking Highway 37, commonly referred to as the Stewart-Cassiar Highway, north from Smithers or by taking a scheduled air flight from Smithers to Dease Lake. Property access to lower elevations is obtainable by truck or car from Highway 37 which passes through the western portion of the property. The extreme southeastern part of the property can be accessed by truck or car from the gravel, Ealue Lake road which passes along the north-shore of Ealue Lake in a north-easterly direction. The upper portions of the property are most easily accessed by helicopter.” ~Technical Report – pg.8

 

Targeting Porphyry Copper-Gold

Colorado is targeting porphyry copper-gold on this property and has an inferred resource, which currently sits at 142.3 million tonnes, averaging 0.22% Cu and 0.26 g/t Au. The NI 43-101 report can be found here.

“Based on the results of the 2013 exploration program at North ROK, a two phase 15,000 m success-contingent drilling program is recommended. It is also recommended that a downhole IP program be completed prior to the initiation of Phase 1 drilling. Phase 1 is divided into two non-contingent components. One 7000 m drilling component to focus on delineating the full extent of the North ROK deposit and another 3000 m drilling component to test other geological, geochemical and geophysical features including the West Mabon, Edon, Lower Mabon and North Mabon zones. A proposed Phase I budget of C$3,250,000 inclusive of all auxiliary, technical and support costs is recommended. The Phase II 5,000 m drilling program is contingent upon success at either or both of the two Phase 1 components and is budgeted at C$ 1,625,000 and will be guided by the results of the preceding drilling programs.” ~ Technical Report – page 3

  • In 2014, Colorado followed these recommendations and succeeded in:
    • Intersecting new mineralization at the West Mabon Zone
    • Establishing significant depth potential and continuity of gold-copper mineralization over 250m below mineralization in DDH NR13-001
    • Defining the broad, deposit scale geometries and controls on mineralized zones
    • Extending mineralization southwest of DDH NR13-013
    • Testing of other Areas

 

BC Copper Grades

BC has a history of producing copper, with 13 Mt being produced between 1894 and 2014. 90% of that production came from 15 deposits, which were calcalkalic porphyries, alkali porphyries and VMS deposits.  Today, 0.3 to 0.4% copper is widely held as a gauge for an economic grade, however, when examining BC’s producing mines, you will see that the grades are lower yet still economical.  Mines which have grades in the 0.2 to 0.3% copper, typically have additional help from moly, gold or silver credits, which can make or break a mine. This is a point that needs to be considered when examining deposits that depend on credits from secondary metals, as base metal prices and precious metals prices don’t always coincide with upwards trends or generally high prices.

BC Copper Deposits

Source: BC Ministry of Energy and Mines

Examining the table, you can see that the grades of Colorado’s inferred resource are pretty good, the biggest difference right now is the size.   North ROK won’t see any drilling as it stands right now, as the main focus in the Golden Triangle this summer will be KSP.

 

 

ROK-Coyote Property Acquisition

On March 13, 2017 Colorado announced the purchase of the ROK-Coyote property from Firesteel Resources. The property lies south and east of North ROK, greatly expanding Colorado’s prospective land size. Firesteel received 1.5 million units of Colorado, with consist of both 1 common share and 1 common share purchase warrant at a price of $0.45 for a period of 24 months. There is a 2% NSR on the property, see news release for further details.

The property has been explored since the late ’60s, with geological mapping, geochemical surveys, grid-based geophysics, surface trenching and some drilling (see news release for more detailed information).  I believe Travis and his team are in a great position to explore and advance the ROK-Coyote effectively, as their experience not only in the Golden Triangle, but specifically on the North ROK property, has set them up well for being as efficient as possible in choosing the right targets to find mineralization.

As you can see in the image above, North ROK’s existing mineralization is found right on the border of the two properties, and it’s thought that it may continue into the ROK-Coyote property. If the mineralization does continue and it’s of a similar grade, this could be game changing because an increase in the size of this porphyry system would really bring attention to this deposit.

 

 

Nevada

Nevada has a long history of being a mining friendly state and ranks 4th in the world according to the Frasier Institute’s ranking of the most attractive jurisdictions for mining investment. Some quick facts from the Nevada Mining Association:

  • Nevada’s production accounted for 77.6% of the United States’ total and 5.4% of the World total gold production.
  • 2015 Gold Production Totalled 5,339,663 Troy ounces
  • 119 mines in Nevada
  • Nevada Mining Gross Domestic Product – $4.6 Billion

Nevada is a hot bed for gold production – and for good reason. The state is home to Carlin Trend gold, which is characterized as typically hosting large oxidized ore bodies, which can be open pit mined and with low gold cut-off grade (<0.2 g/t). All of these attributes spell cheap gold production for the lucky company that finds it, which is key to making money in both a bull and a bear market.

One final thing on Nevada, Green Springs diversifies Colorado’s property portfolio out of BC, which, prior to knowing the outcome of this provincial election, was a great move in my mind, and shows that management is cognizant of jurisdictional risk.

 

Green Springs

The Green Springs Property consists of 193 unpatented claims covering 1,416 hectares, and sits approximately 50 miles south of Kinross’ Blad Mountain/Alligator Ridge Mine.  Colorado announced the optioning of the property last December from Ely Gold and Minerals. The option terms can be found in the news release.

Green Springs is a past producing property, having produced 1.1 million tons @ 2.1 g/t gold, which was heap leachable at an over 80% recovery.  Following USMX’s operation of the mine, it was further controlled by Palladon Ventures, which produced a 43-101 report in 2005, and then Ely Gold and Minerals, which has owned the property since 2013.

 

Colorado’s Work

Colorado was able to outline 8 exploration targets based on historical data, and completed a drill program in the first part of this year, 2017. Drill results were released on April 4, 2017 and were highlighted by intercepts of 135 ft of 3.23 g/t gold, 25 feet of 9.75 g/t gold in the E Zone.  From the news release in reference to the E Zone,

“These results confirm our concept that high grade feeder structures may exist to the south of the old pits and that mineralization can extend into the underlying Joana limestone.”

 

Further, the company highlighted work in the A zone to which they say, in reference to the drill results,

“These results confirm our premise that rocks mapped as the underlying and un-mined Pilot Shale have the potential to host significant gold mineralized zones at relatively shallow depths.”

In my discussion with Travis, he mentioned that they were sending their geological team to Green Springs for further work and preparation for further exploration this fall. The Green Springs property will bring Colorado year-round news flow and presents great speculative upside given the nature of the Nevada geology.

 

 

Colorado Resources’ Company Valuation

At the time of writing this report, Colorado had a MCAP of around $25 million.  Is that over-valued, under-valued or fair valued? Valuing companies at this stage in development isn’t easy, in my opinion, as we will be assigning value to a property’s potential rather than with an actual measurable resource, excluding North ROK, which does have an inferred resource.

A base value for a company can be found by looking at the liquidation value of their properties. Meaning, if the company were to stop exploring and sell their properties at this moment in time, how much money could they get? This isn’t an exact science, as all of the properties aren’t exactly alike and their selling price has a lot to do with where in the market cycle they are being sold.

For comparison purposes, let’s take a look at Seabridge Gold’s purchase of SnipGold in early 2016.  From Seabridge’s Annual Report 2016,

“SnipGold common shares received 1/63rd of a common share of the Company in exchange for 1 SnipGold common share held. 695,277 common shares of the Company were issued to existing SnipGold shareholders. The Company also issued 54,968 stock options and 1,587 warrants to existing SnipGold holders of similar securities. The fair value of the shares, stock options and warrants was $13.1 million. The Company also incurred $1.7 million of acquisition costs. The total purchase price of $14.8 million has been allocated to the assets acquired and the liabilities assumed based on the fair value of the total consideration at the closing date of the acquisition.” ~ Annual Report 2016 – pg.43

The acquisition by Seabridge was aided by the bottom of the bear market cycle, which made it hard for SnipGold to find financing. SnipGold isn’t a perfect comparison, but is a stone’s throw from Colorado’s properties and has similar geology, IE speculative upside.  Fast forward a year into the new bull market cycle and SnipGold is probably financed easily on its own, or is sold for more than the $15 million in this transaction.

If we assign this value to Colorado’s properties, which I think is really under selling what they have, and add their $6.5 million in cash, you have $21.5 million which is just below their current MCAP. Therefore, without even getting into where we are in the bull market cycle and the speculative upside of their properties, you are basically buying Colorado for the liquidation value right now – not many companies can say this.

While, for me, the liquidation value comparison is solid and enough for me to make a decision, for those who want a little more, let’s take a look at one more comparison; neighbouring Skeena Resources, which is a great comparison from a geological sense.

To begin the comparison, I’ll start with the copper-gold porphyry deposits’ Spectrum and GJ, which have resource estimates. Referring to the Spectrum Technical Report, page.8,

“NSR AuEq Cut-off (g/t) – 0.5, tonnes – 8,590,000, Au – 1.04 g/t, Ag – 6.58 g/t, Cu – 0.11%, AuEq – 0.87 g/t – Therefore contained metal – Au – 290,000 oz, Ag – 1,820,000, Cu – 20,835,000 lbs – Indicated Resource… NSR AuEq Cut-off (g/t) – 0.5, tonnes – 22,630,000, Au – 1.03 g/t, Ag – 3.85 g/t, Cu – 0.11%, AuEq – 0.85 g/t – Therefore contained metal – Au –750,000 oz, Ag – 2,800,000, Cu – 54,889,000 lbs – Inferred Resource”

Referring to the GJ Technical Report, page.5,

“Cut-off Cu % – 0.2, tonnes – 133,670,000, Cu – 0.32 %, Au – 0.36 g/t – Therefore the contained metal Cu – 940.23 million lbs, Au – 1.56 Moz – Measured plus Indicated Resource…Cut-off Cu % – 0.2, tonnes – 53,690,000, Cu – 0.26%, Au – 0.33 g/t – Therefore the contained metal – Cu – 312.54 million lbs, Au – 0.57 Moz – Inferred Resource”

 

How does Colorado’s North ROK compare? Here is a look at the 43-101 resource estimate. Referring to the Technical Report, page.2,

“Cut-off CuEq % – 0.20, Tonnes – 142,300,000, Cu – 0.22%, Au – 0.26 g/t, CuEq – 0.37% – Therefore contained metal Cu – 690,297,300 lbs and Au – 1,189,512 oz – Inferred Resource”

As you can see from the Technical Report data, Skeena’s resource estimates are more developed and larger than that of Colorado’s North ROK.  Skeena’s current MCAP, at the time of writing this report, is around $35 million, this valuation isn’t just based off of their resource estimate, but also the speculative value of their other properties.

Is Skeena worth more than Colorado? It’s up for debate, but I would say that from this perspective, Colorado is at least fair value. Personally, I think they’re both on the undervalued side in comparison to other junior companies, given what they have and their speculative upside potential and the management teams that are leading them. With the BC provincial election behind us, I think these companies will see their share prices rise as their value becomes more apparent.

 

 

In conclusion, like any exploration company, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered, and answered with good results. As we all know, in mining, the odds are stacked against us in terms of finding economic mineralization. However, I believe that Colorado Resources is a company which strengthens your odds of success because they possess the most important aspects of a junior miner.

They have:

  • CASH – roughly $6.5 million
  • A management team which has the knowledge and  X-Factor experience for exploration within the Golden Triangle
  • Multiple district scale land packages with speculative potential – similar geology as some of the area’s most prolific mines and deposits: Eskay Creek mine, Snip mine, Pretium’s Brucejack Deposit and Seabridge’s KSM Deposit.
  • Short term PUSH from a 7500 m drill program at their highly prospective KSP property

You be the judge as to whether Colorado Resources fits your individual investment criteria. For me, they’re a welcome addition to my speculative portfolio!

 

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Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not an investment professional, nor do I know you and your specific investment criteria. Please do your own due diligence. I have NOT been compensated to write this article and do NOT have a business relationship with Colorado Resources. However, I do own shares in Colorado Resources. Please check SEDAR for the most accurate data regarding Colorado Resources information and analytics.

 

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10 Rules for Successful Speculation in Junior Resource Stocks

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“Deliberate, planned speculation is, in my opinion, the best and safest method to improve one’s chances of preserving the purchasing power of capital or maintaining its constant convertibility into cash without loss.” ~ The Battle for Investment Survival – G.M. Loeb – pg.69

Speculating in the junior resource sector is fraught with risk. Consequently, this is also the reason it’s possible to earn such big rewards.

‘Risk’ is a complicated concept because it means something different to each person. In some cases, those who put their capital into the junior sector have a very high tolerance for risk, while others are blind to or naive about the amount of risk they’re taking on. Naivety or ignorance is usually the product of speculating during a bull market rally, which can mislead anyone in to thinking they’re a genius.

For me, success in the junior market has evolved from discipline. Over the years, I’ve developed a series of criteria or rules that I use to dictate how I buy and sell in the junior resource market. To get you started, I’ve put together a list of criteria for your reference.  In reality, there isn’t just one list of rules that will work for all of us; each person will have their own set of criteria to guide their speculating.

These aren’t listed in any specific order – let’s take a look!

 

 

Rule #1 – Sell Half on a Double

The junior resource sector is fraught with risk, bad things can happen to good companies. For this reason, I think it’s prudent to sell half of your position on a double. This allows you to take back your principal and ride the speculative wave of a new discovery, the release of a resource estimate or a mine’s first gold pour with the risk of losing capital.

 

Rule #2 – Don’t CHASE a Stock

Have you ever found a company and, while performing your due diligence, the share price rose above the price at which you first saw it or were willing to pay for it? I have. Early on in my speculative career, I chased and paid a higher price than I wanted for a stock, only to have the price come back a couple months later. My point is, the junior market is highly volatile, most of these stocks will come back to you if you’re patient. Some won’t, but that’s okay, too.

 

Rule #3 – Don’t Over Pay for a Company

As part of your due diligence process, a comparison to a similar company is advantageous because you should be able to gauge if your company’s price is cheap, expensive or even with its peers. Company comparisons are great, but they can also be a hindrance if done improperly. Here are a few tips to guide your comparison:

  • Companies exploring for or mining the same metal
  • Companies preferably in the same jurisdiction or in jurisdictions that are similar. This is complicated, so be as specific as you can. For example, Canada is a large place with 10 provinces, each of which is very different from a political standpoint.
  • Companies at similar points in development. An example is both companies have a resource of similar size in the measured and indicated resource category. From here, you can have a number of different ratios, most importantly, the number of ounces to enterprise value (#/EV). More simply, but not as effective, number of ounces to MCAP (#/MCAP).

NOTE: Explorers can be hard companies to compare; typically, most of the speculation is based around the people managing the company, and past success typically translates into higher premiums.

 

Rule  #4 – If You Don’t Measure It, You Can’t Manage It

Measuring your performance is key to evaluating how you’re doing, and for many, this may be the biggest eye-opener.

Measuring your performance isn’t difficult because most brokerages provide some form of portfolio tracking for you. Not only do you need to ensure you’re making money, but you want to make sure that you’re beating inflation; this silent killer will erode your purchasing power.

Continuing with the making money theme, if you’re going to speculate in junior stocks and take on an enormous amount of risk, you better be getting a good return. To be in single digits in return percentages isn’t good enough for speculations. If this is all you can achieve, you’re better off buying an index or fund where the management is done for you. This can be a harsh reality for some, but not acknowledging this fact can lead to major losses in a bear market.

 

Rule #5 – Buy Value

This may seem like a simple statement, but it will be the hardest of the rules to follow, depending on how stringent you want to be. In my experience, this has been the most important rule guiding my speculations. As Rick Rule says, “Money is made on the delta between price and value,” and what better value can you receive than buying something that’s detested by the majority? Be a contrarian or you will eventually be a victim!

 

Rule #6 – Don’t Speculate with the Mortgage Payment

“There are not nearly enough good investments or speculations to go around. Hence on an actuarial basis, when one ventures into any kind of investment or speculation, the odds are against one.” ~ The Battle for Investment Survival – G.M. Loeb – pg.86

Most speculations aren’t going to work out, therefore, don’t speculate with money that you don’t have or that you should be using to pay your mortgage or your bills. In a bull market, it can be very easy to let emotion take over your logical mind and tempt you to risk it all. Speculate within the confines of a set of rules and there’s less chance this will happen.

 

Rule #7 – Don’t be Afraid to Sell

Without a doubt, you will have positions that are negative in their return. First and foremost, you must understand why the share price is falling and, secondly, after understanding why, buy more or sell your position. Every day you don’t sell a stock, you buy it.

The tendency can be to hold on to positions in the HOPE that they come back to at least even.  In most cases, this is going to be a fool’s errand, because when the story changes, very few companies can put the pieces back together successfully.

Secondly, make it your goal to find the fatal flaw in a company and get out as soon as you identify it. Brent Cook and Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights refer to this all the time – it’s sage advice!

 

Rule #8 – Be Skeptical

Challenge and make sure you understand what you’re reading and hearing about the market and companies. A great quote from T.H. Mitchell, author of Canadian Mining Speculation, on being skeptical about your speculations,

“The speculator must take the attitude that all price movements are manipulations by the professional operators. This is not true, but to be on the safe side the speculator must operate as if it were…All news releases are promotion, all price changes are manipulations and all important discoveries are basically unimportant…pessimistic thinking…opposite of the optimistic public – can they expect to be a successful speculator over the long pull” ~Canadian Mining Speculation – T.H. Mitchell – pg.87

I highly suggest reading this book, or at the very least, check out my review here.

 

Rule #9 – Read or Listen to Both the Positive and Negative

Confirmation bias is a very real part of human nature. For those who haven’t heard of this, it’s the act of seeking out information that confirms our assumptions or theories. In the junior resource sector, this can be a HUGE mistake because none of us have all the answers.

Actively pursue non confirming information. Be critical of yourself. Determine how you could be wrong and the opposite opinion could be right. It can be a very humbling and important process.

 

Rule #10A – The Smaller the Better – # of Companies

You don’t hear the smaller the better very often. My point is keep your speculative portfolio to a manageable size, so that you can understand the companies to the best of your ability and follow news flow as it happens. Each person is different in how much information they can handle given everything else going on in their life. In general for those with full time jobs, but still want to speculate having a portfolio under ten makes a lot of sense to me, you can’t kiss all the girls or boys!

 

Rule #10B – The Smaller the Better – Restrict Your Speculations to Only a Few Jurisdictions

Jurisdictional risk is a complicated subject because it goes much deeper than a country-by-country basis; provinces or states within those countries can be very different from one another. Because of this, I highly suggest limiting your speculations to a couple of jurisdictions, where you can really understand the risks of that specific region and monitor news flow as it happens.

 

There are many ways to make money in the junior resource sector, and I’m well aware that there are ways that contradict the rules I’ve listed here. My point is that no matter how you plan to make your money, having a set of rules to lean on during the process will make you a more successful speculator.

Create a set of rules for yourself, speculate according to them, and I know you will be more successful in your pursuit of alpha.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – for FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice or a recommendation. I’m not an investment professional, nor do I know you and your specific investment criteria. Please do your own due diligence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A Conversation with Curtis Moore of Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels

I’m bullish on uranium’s future and believe those who are positioned in the right companies will see extraordinary gains in the future. One of the companies that I believe will excel with a rising uranium price is Energy Fuels. For those unfamiliar with the Energy Fuels story, check out my article, written last December, here.

Curtis Moore

 

Today’s article is an interview that I conducted with a member of the Energy Fuels management team, Curtis Moore. Moore is VP of Marketing and Corporate Development, and is involved in a wide range of company activities, such as uranium sales, mergers and acquisitions, investor and public relations, and corporate legal.

Enjoy!

 

Brian: The uranium spot price has recovered well since hitting a low of $17.75 per pound, late last year. Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s giant uranium producer, played a major part in this price appreciation with the following announcement on January 10th, 2017:

“[A]nnounced today that due to the prolonged recovery in the uranium market, planned 2017 production from Republic of Kazakhstan will be reduced by approximately 10%. This will amount to a volume greater than 2,000 MtU or more than 5 million lb U3O8 reduction in 2017 planned output. For greater context, this is equal to 3% of total global uranium production (based on 2015 UxC Consulting figures)” ~ Kazatomprom

Today, the UxC U3O8 price sits at $23.25 USD per pound, while this is a great appreciation in the spot, prices below $30 USD per pound are still uneconomic.

 

Where do you think the uranium price is headed in 2017? And, how will it affect the way Energy Fuels does business this year?

Curtis:  We believe the price of uranium will be higher at the end of 2017 than they are today.  However, considerable uncertainty remains.  After shooting up from $18 to the mid-$20’s earlier this year, uranium spot prices have stalled for the time being.  I understand that utilities have not been particularly active in the spot market this year, which actually might be a good thing.  We also understand that utilities intend to enter both the spot and term markets to an increasing extent this year, so that is demand that has not yet materialized.  Indeed, several non-US utilities already have begun to dip their toes into the market to soak up some of the cheap uranium that is available.  I’ll also point out that uranium markets are thinly traded, and there are relatively few market participants.  Therefore, small changes in supply or demand can create large changes in prices.  The price volatility we’ve seen in the spot market this year exemplifies this fact, as we’ve seen large daily increases and decreases in spot prices based on very small quantities of material traded. 

Producers, including Energy Fuels, typically want to minimize exposure to today’s spot market.  This is likely a reason behind some of the recently announced production cuts.  Indeed, as long-term contracts continue to expire, I would expect producers to simply continue to cut production, rather than sell our valuable resources into a weak spot market.  These production cuts, along with the fact that global uranium demand is growing, will eventually create the conditions needed to bring rationality back to uranium prices. 

At Energy Fuels, we are certainly happy to see uranium prices rise off of their near-historic lows in late-2016.  However, we still plan to cut production, thereby preserving cash, until prices rise above about the mid-$30’s to $40 level.  I would like to think we would be one of the first companies back in the market, since we can ramp-up production relatively quickly, and we can make good operating margins from our lower cost sources of production at or above the $40 price level.  But, until that happens, we’re happy to sit back and keep our powder dry.

 

Brian: As you know, a uranium producer can protect itself in periods of low U3O8 prices in two key ways: a hedged contract sales book and access to uranium In-Situ Recovery (ISR) operations. While prices below $30 USD per pound make even low cost ISR operations uneconomic, they are a huge advantage when operating in conjunction with a hedge sales book.

Energy Fuels possesses both conventional uranium mining operations and, most importantly right now, ISR operations within the United States. They also have a hedged sales book, which allows them to sell uranium above the current spot price.

How is Energy Fuels using their long-term contracts and ISR production to their advantage while the uranium price is low?

Curtis:  You are correct that Energy Fuels holds long-term contracts, and those contracts have pricing at levels that are well above our costs of production.  One of the reasons we are not currently profitable is that we do not have enough of these higher-priced contracts.  However, once prices rise into the $40’s per pound, we believe it will be prudent to secure a certain portion of our production into new contracts.  Though, we will leave additional proportions available for sale at even higher prices.

You are generally correct that ISR production is lower cost than conventional, while conventional production can produce much more pounds of uranium at higher prices.  However, our Canyon Mine, a fully-permitted, mostly-developed, high-grade conventional mine in Arizona, is an exception to this “rule”, as it is probably the lowest cost source of production in our portfolio right now.  Still, we don’t plan to bring Canyon into production until we can realize sales prices at least above the high-$30’s.

Nevertheless, our Nichols Ranch ISR Project, which is currently in production in Wyoming, and our Alta Mesa ISR Project, which is currently on care and maintenance in Texas, have costs that are right behind Canyon.  As prices rise into the $40’s, with Canyon, Nichols Ranch, and Alta Mesa, we believe we have the ability to bring about 2-3 million pounds of annual production into the market within a relatively short period of time.  So, we think we’ll be one of the first companies to benefit from even modest rises in uranium prices.

 

Brian: One thing that I admire about the Energy Fuels management team is that they aren’t afraid to progress their assets during a bear market. This methodology will allow them to capitalize on a turn in the market, and fully focus on production when the uranium bull market returns.

On Febuary 2, 2017, Energy Fuels released some fantastic chemical assay results from their Canyon Mine, which confirm more high-grade uranium and copper mineralization. A couple of the highlights from the assay are: Hole No. 14, intercept length 4 feet, average uranium grade 8.35% U3O8 and average copper grade 1.64%;  Hole 11, intercept length 18 feet, average uranium grade 1.23% U3O8 and average copper grade 7.74%. More assay results can be found in the news release.

NOTE: The World Nuclear Association says that high grade uranium is considered to be about 2% U3O8 and low grade is around 0.1%. This should put Energy Fuels results into perspective.  Also, the lowest % Copper for the typical economic project these days is 0.4% copper, again putting these high grade figures into perspective.

 

Uranium Abundance in ppm
Source: World Nuclear Association

The latest assay results from the Canyon Mine are very promising. What does Energy Fuels have planned for the Canyon Mine in 2017 and beyond?

Curtis:  We are very excited about the Canyon Mine.  According to the WNA table you mention, the only country with significant high- or very high-grade uranium deposits is Canada.  But, ex-Canada, the Canyon Mine is very high-grade on a global basis.  I believe it is the highest-grade uranium mine actually being developed in the World today.  And, keep in mind that most of the high-grade Canadian deposits you hear a lot about are not permitted or developed.  They’ll require large dollars to finance.  As a result, production from these deposits is likely many years away.  In my opinion, these are truly exceptional deposits that will make enormous contributions to uranium supply in the long-term.  But, they probably won’t be ready to produce during the upcoming uranium super cycle.

By contrast, we believe the Canyon Mine can capitalize on the upcoming uranium super cycle.  It has the dual advantage of being high-grade and low-cost on a go-forward basis.  And, all the pieces are in place to start production.  It is fully-permitted, all surface development is complete, the production shaft is complete, and our White Mesa Mill is ready with the capacity to process the ore into salable product. 

The current NI 43-101 Technical Report shows the project having 1.6 million pounds of inferred uranium resources.  However, we recently completed an underground drilling program from the shaft.  And, we intercepted very large areas of previously undiscovered high-grade uranium mineralization.  We expect to release a new technical report later this year incorporating the results of our drilling program, and we hope to significantly increase the size of the resource and upgrade the resource classifications. 

You also mention the copper mineralization we discovered.  We still have a lot of core samples to assay and evaluate.  But, so far we have assayed 509-feet of core with an average grade of over 10% copper.  This is extremely high-grade copper mineralization.   We don’t know yet whether we will be able to economically produce a salable copper concentrate.  However, we are taking a very close look at the potential to reconfigure the White Mesa Mill to produce this copper.  And, if it can be produced as a profitable by-product, it will lower our costs at Canyon even more.

 

Brian: It should be noted that the process to get a uranium property permitted in North America is long and sometimes difficult. The Energy Fuels team, however, is proficient at getting their properties approved for mining.

On January 10, 2017, Energy Fuels released news that the U.S. Bureau of Land Management had issued a Final Environmental Impact Statement and Record of Decision for the Sheep Mountain Project. These are the final governmental approvals needed to commence mining at the project.

The Sheep Mountain Project is a conventional type development property located in the Crooks Gap Mining District of central Wyoming. The deposit holds 18.4 Mlbs of U3O8 probable reserves and an indicated resource of 30.3 Mlbs U3O8.

Also, Energy Fuels announced in a news release on March 23rd, 2017 that they have received permits to expand Nichols Ranch in the future. Nichols Ranch is an ISR property, which is located in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming. Currently the facility has 2 Mlbs U3O8 production capacity per annum and has a measured and indicated resource of 2.8 million pounds (Mlbs) of U3O8, with a lot of exploration potential ahead of it.

The Energy Fuels team’s ability to successfully navigate the permitting process is an asset to the company. Can you give us an overview of what the permitting of Nicholas Ranch and Sheep Mountain will do for the company?

 

Curtis:  Thank you for recognizing the success our company enjoys on the permitting front.  It is not easy to permit new uranium projects in the U.S., and we believe our permitting team is truly second-to-none in the U.S.  But for some reason, lots of investors take licenses and permits for granted.  In reality, permitting a project is time-consuming and expensive.  It can take 10 years and millions of dollars to permit a large new mine or mill in the U.S. or Canada.  Even less developed countries have difficult permitting pathways. I can’t emphasize enough that existing permits are an extremely valuable asset to any company.  No permits, no production.

We recently finished permitting the expansion of our Nichols Ranch Project in Wyoming into the Jane Dough wellfields with the EPA, NRC, and Wyoming state agencies.  At Nichols Ranch, we are currently producing from 9 wellfields.  But, under the previous permit, we were only able to develop 4 more wellfields.  However, the recently approved expansion allows us to construct 22 additional new wellfields.  We also have the permits in place to build 8 more wellfields beyond the 22 mentioned prior.  This gives us a lot of runway for future production at Nichols Ranch.  We also recently completed permitting at the Sheep Mountain Project, a large conventional mine located in Wyoming.  And, we have some permits pending for a couple of our other conventional projects, including the Roca Honda Project in New Mexico and the expansion of our La Sal and Daneros projects. 

We also have existing permits for a number of developed projects that are currently on care and maintenance, including the Alta Mesa ISR Project in Texas, the La Sal Complex, the Daneros Mine and Tony M Mines in Utah, and the Whirlwind Mine in Colorado.  Again, these existing permits are valuable assets to Energy Fuels. 

As prices rise, there will be a lot of uranium companies talking about their deposits.  We will be talking about ours, too.  But, we will actually be mining, producing finished product, selling uranium to utilities, and putting those dollars into our treasury.

 

Brian: Last year, I wrote an article entitled, Invest like an Insider, where I discussed how important it can be to watch a company’s insiders’ buying and selling. The actions of a company’s insiders typically, but not always, provide the investor with an indication of the company’s health and future prospects. Over the last few months, Energy Fuels has seen both insider buying and selling.

Curtis, can you give us an overview of the insider buying and selling over the last few months?

Curtis:  No problem.  Investors deserve to understand what is happening.  And despite one Board member selling over the past several months for personal financial reasons, we recently had 11 members of the board and senior management buy stock in the Company.  We believe we put our money where our mouth is.   I would also point out that insiders own about 5.2% of our common shares outstanding.  And, most of these shares have been purchased on the open market over the years, as no one received founders’ shares and we only recently instituted an RSU program to save cash.  In short, our insiders have invested very large sums of our own money into this Company.  We believe in this Company, and we believe in the long-term prospects for uranium.

 

Brian: I believe President Trump’s election has played an integral role in the initial rise in the uranium spot price. Jonathan Crawford writes in a Bloomberg article posted on February 7th, 2017,

“Trump will throw more support behind nuclear power than the Obama administration, which gave a higher priority to wind and solar power, Maria Korsnick, president and chief executive officer of the Nuclear Energy Institute, said in an interview Tuesday at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. The industry’s goal of expanding the number of U.S. nuclear reactors dovetails into Trump’s campaign promise to add jobs and boost investment in infrastructure.” ~Bloomberg

Crawford further states,

“’The U.S. nuclear industry contributes $60 billion to the economy and employs more than 100,000 people, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute. That was a key message the Washington-based group delivered to the White House after Trump campaigned on a promise to boost employment, Korsnick said.” ~Bloomberg

No one has a crystal ball, but can you please give us your best guess as to whether or not nuclear power will play a greater role in America’s energy future?

Curtis:  In our opinion, the U.S. will remain a leader in nuclear energy.  However, we anticipate nuclear to be flat or decline somewhat in the U.S.  We are shutting down some of our smaller, older plants.  But, we are also replacing them with some larger, newer plants.  We are also moving forward with some new small modular reactor (SMR) designs.  However, the growth of nuclear, and hence uranium demand, will not be in the U.S. or Europe.  It will mainly be in Asia, as countries like China, Russia, South Korea, and India move forward with their programs.  China will likely surpass the U.S. in nuclear generating capacity by the early- to mid-2020’s.  And, Energy Fuels is well-positioned to sell our product to the U.S. and nations around the World.  We have a track-record of international sales.  We have accounts at all of the western conversion facilities.  And, our projects are ready to increase production.  In short, we will be ready to produce and sell more uranium when the market wishes to pay us fair value for our product.

 

Brian: Curtis, thank you for taking the time to answer my questions.

 

 

Summarizing from my conversation with Curtis, here are a few of the highlights for Energy Fuels, right now:

  • The permitting of their Sheep Mountain project and, most importantly, the permitting for the expansion of their ISR Nichols Ranch operation.
  • 11 Energy Fuels insiders are putting their money where their mouth is and are buying Energy Fuels stock
  • High grade Canyon Mine continues to release encouraging drill results, and looks to be the source of both high grade / low cost uranium and, potentially, copper concentrate.

 

These are all positives in the mining business but, of course, as investors, we must be mindful of the potential pitfalls associated with our investments. One big one in any uranium company, at this moment in time, is where is the uranium spot price headed? Most uranium producers and prognosticators feel it is going up, but when and by how much? These are the questions that you need to contemplate and decide where the risks are and how much you’re willing to take on.

For me, I believe in the Energy Fuels management team and their properties, and it’s where I will be putting my money.

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni   P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria. I do NOT own Energy Fuels stock. All Energy Fuels analytics were taken from their website and press releases. Energy Fuels is a Sponsor of Junior Stock Review. 

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Zinc’s Bullish Narrative – Part 2 – A Look at Demand

Zinc Supply and Demand

In Part 1 of this series on Zinc’s Bullish Narrative, I covered the supply side of the zinc market. Here, I’ll take a look at world zinc demand. Demand for zinc concentrate begins with the smelters and is where I will start.

 

Smelting

Smelting is integral to the zinc supply chain because, generally speaking, the end use manufacturers can’t use the zinc concentrate that’s created by the miners.

NOTE: Check out this video on zinc smelting

There are two methods for smelting the zinc concentrate:

  • Pyrometallurgical
  • Hydrometallurgical (Electrolytical)

Before the concentrate can enter one of these two smelting methods, it must be roasted or sintered. Roasting is used to remove the sulphur from the concentrate, which can represent anywhere from 25 to 30% of the concentrate.  The concentrate temperature is brought up to 900 degrees Celsius and the zinc sulfide converts into zinc oxide. The sulfur then combines with oxygen and forms sulfur dioxide. Once the sulfur is removed, the concentrate can now be processed using either the pyrometallurgical process or the hydrometallurgical process to produce the near pure zinc.

NOTE – There are 3 types of roasters: Multiple hearth, suspension and fluidized bed.

 

Hydrometallurgical Process

90% of zinc is produced via the hydrometallurgical process. Here are the steps used in the process:

  1. Leaching – sulfuric acid is used to dissolve the zinc oxide, while leaving most, but not all of the other metals un-dissolved.
  2. Purification – the cementation process is used to purify the zinc further, with the addition of zinc dust, any of the remaining metals can be precipitated out.
  3. Electrolysis – an electrical current is sent between lead alloy anodes and aluminum cathodes, causing the zinc to come out of solution and deposit onto the cathode.
  4. Casting – the close to pure zinc is then removed from the cathode, dried, melted and finally casted into ingots. Zinc ingots typically range in purity from high grade 99.95% to special high grade 99.99%.

 

Pyrometallurgical Process

Due to the energy intensive nature of this process, only a few places in the world use the pyrometallurgical process. Zinc is refined in this process within an Imperial Smelting furnace. Because this process is rarely used I won’t go into any more detail.

 

Smelting Capacity

World Smelter Demand

Source:  International Lead and Zinc Study Group

As with zinc mine production, almost 50% of available smelting capacity is found in China. China is the hub for zinc smelting for a numbers of reasons, which include the following; lower pollution and safety standards, proximity to end use manufacturing facilities and, finally, has a population which is increasingly headed towards urbanization, creating huge demand for zinc construction materials.

On a global scale, smelter capacity is forecasted to increase slightly to around 16 million t/y over the next 5 years from its current 2016 base of around 15 million t/y. Over the next 5 years, China is showing the most promise for expansion in smelting capacity as the rest of the world appears set to only replace the capacity that they are scheduled to lose over the same period.

Smelter Closures are led by Padeng’s Tak smelter, located in Thailand, which is set to close once the nearby Mae Mod Mine is depleted of its ore. This will remove 110,000 t/y capacity from the smelting market. Also, closer to home, the zinc recycler, Horsehead, headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is just emerging from Chapter 11 Bankruptcy , eliminating its outstanding debt with a new deal. That said, their Mooresboro smelter has a lot of technical issues to work through before it can be restarted, so until that happens, it must be considered lost capacity.

The loss in capacity will be filled with some expansion of existing smelting operations. A couple of the larger planned expansions are: Penoles’ Torreon smelting operation, which is set to expand its operation somewhere in the order of 100K t/y over the next 5 years. Also, but on a smaller scale, Boliden’s Odda and Vendanta’s Skorpion look to expand their capacity in the next 5 years.

In all, much like zinc mine production that’s outside of China, the impact of the new smelting capacity will be mostly nullified by the amount of smelter closures or production reductions. If there is to be growth in smelting capacity, it will come from China.

NOTE: I’ve found it difficult to find and confirm information on the Chinese zinc supply and demand fundamentals from sources that I trust.

 

 

Zinc Uses

Zinc is a metal which plays a significant yet inconspicuous role in our everyday lives. Its most desirable attribute is the fact that it’s resistant to corrosion. Through the galvanizing process, industries have leveraged this attribute to improve the quality of their products and, thus, deliver tremendous value to their customers.

Most of us commute to work in a mode of transportation that likely has a galvanized body.  Or, we live in a home with a galvanized steel roof or building exterior.

Industrial Zinc Uses

Source: Zinc: Essential for Modern Life – International Zinc Association ~ pg.12

Other than its corrosion resistance, zinc is also in demand for its calenderability, abrasive resistance, cast-ability, and room temperature mechanical properties. Each of these properties have a different application within industry.

 

Galvanizing

Zinc’s most common use is in the galvanizing of steel. While the zinc barrier created in the galvanizing process creates a barrier between moisture and the underlying steel, the zinc does itself break down in the presence of moisture, albeit at a much slower rate than steel. Thus, the thickness of the zinc coating will dictate the life of the corrosion protection.

The International Zinc Association provides the following example of the effectiveness of galvanized steel within the automotive industry,

“The use of galvanized sheet for automotive body panels allows today’s automakers to guarantee up to 12 years’ corrosion resistance, while adding only a fraction of a percent to the cost of the vehicle. The cost-benefit ratio represents outstanding value for the consumer.” ~ IZA

  • While the galvanizing of rebar for construction purposes exists today, it may get a huge boost in the near future as a few of the southern States in America look to increase the grade of rebar used within all of their marine construction. For those who don’t know, my background is in steel manufacturing. I was General Foreman of operations at a rolling mill which produced rebar, angles, channels and flats.
  • Typically concrete / rebar construction is designed with 25 to 50 years life span, however, marine construction, in particular, has come under scrutiny for not being robust enough, which has prompted some States to look at increasing their construction specifications on the materials used in marine construction. For rebar, this means higher grade requirements and possibly being restricted to only corrosion resistant steel.
    • Currently, epoxy coated rebar is used for applications that require corrosion resistance, however, epoxy coating has been known to crack, allowing for moisture to begin its oxidation of the steel.
    • Stainless rebar is an option, as high nickel/chromium levels provide the steel with corrosion resistance, but require specialized rolling mill layouts to accommodate its production.  If stainless rebar were to be mandated, eventually some efficiency would be made to reduce its higher production costs.
    • Galvanized rebar is a very promising prospect as a galvanizing line could be added to the end of most rebar mills without a major cost in CAPEX or in process changes, unlike stainless. The knock on galvanizing is that it’s only a surface coat, which does corrode over time. That said, an appropriate zinc coating could meet the 100 year life span requirements.

For the reasons outlined, galvanized rebar could play a major role in marine construction’s future and further drive zinc demand.

 

Sheet or Rolled Zinc

  • Zinc is melted and continually cast into ingots. Present day casting equipment will deliver an ingot in the near net shape of the final product, thus drastically reducing the amount of time and the number of rolls needed to reduce the ingot into its final finished product dimensions.
  • Zinc’s chemical and mechanical properties make it a go to metal within the construction industry.  Specifically, using it in applications which take advantage of its corrosion resistance, such as roofs or exterior wall material.
  • A roof or building wall constructed using the sheet or rolled zinc has a typical life span of upwards 100 years. This life span provides the customer with superior bang for their buck, and because approximately 90% of the material is recycled, it reduces the amount of waste sent to landfills.
  • I believe corrosion resistant building materials, such as those which use zinc, will be in growing demand in the future.

Die Casting

Zinc’s mechanical properties make it ideal for die casting. Its strength and stiffness allow for thin-walled sections to be cast, reducing the casting time, the amount of zinc needed to produce the product, a reduction in tooling costs, and allows for a less complex assembly of the product being manufactured.

Brass

Brass is a combination of zinc and copper which, depending on the concentration of each metal, can have very different properties. Most commonly, brass is strong, machineable, tough, conductive and corrosion resistant. Brass’ uses range from pump parts to clock components, bushing material, and a variety of marine applications. The variety and number of uses explains why brass makes up 9% of zinc’s demand.

Zinc Dust

Zinc dust is a fine gray powder, which can be used within paints to leverage zinc corrosion resistance. It can be a cheaper option than buying galvanized steel, but isn’t as effective as the galvanized product.

Fertilizers

While currently accounting for only a small portion of zinc’s uses, zinc fertilizer is on the rise, as organizations like the Zinc Nutrient Initiative produce research on the positive effects that zinc fertilizers have on crop yields around the world. By increasing a plant’s water uptake ability, zinc improves the plant’s resilience to drought and pathogenic infections and, thus, increases crop yields.

Demand for Uses

A growing trend in the world is the urbanization of the population which, in countries like China, is happening at a rapid pace. The urbanization of the population leads to a whole host of demands, but most importantly in context to my commentary on zinc, is building materials.  Whether it be for city infrastructure or for residential building projects, corrosion resistant materials use is on the rise, as more and more homeowners seek to extend the lives of their homes and vehicles.

 

Zinc Alternative

At some point in the future, the zinc price will either force manufacturers to find an alternative material, or economics will allow manufacturers to use a superior substitute.

One building material substitute could be stainless steel; its corrosion resistance is not a coating but found throughout the metal, and it’s strong, both of which make it ideal for use with infrastructure that requires longevity. For roofing material, stainless has a higher melting temperature leaving it less susceptible to damage in house fires. Also, it’s more dent-resistant and will not deform under foot or in a hail storm which, depending on the climate in which you live, could be advantageous.

Aluminum and magnesium alloys could replace zinc in casting, as they have some similarities in mechanical properties, but it really depends on the end use as to whether the zinc can be replaced economically.  In some cases, plastics may even be used to replace zinc.

Fertilizer is a very small part of zinc demand, but in a situation where the price is elevated, my guess is that farmers simply won’t use it. In a world with a “warming climate,” droughts may become all too common and, therefore, we may see more farmers changing their view of the use of zinc-rich fertilizers.

A quick glance at a few replacement metal prices: Stainless steel – depending on the grade and how it’s manufactured, the price can range between USD $2000 to $3000 per tonne; Aluminum – LME cash price USD $1937 per tonne; Molybdenum – LME cash price USD $14,750 per tonne; and finally, plastics — there can be a wide range of prices depending on chemistry.

 

 

Supply and Demand Comparison

Zinc Supply and Demand

Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group

As you can see in the graph, demand out-paced both the refined metal and mine production in 2016 by 286K and 724K, respectively. From the supply side, 2017 is looking much like 2016, except the deficit between demand and supply appears as though it could get even worse as the mine closures and production losses add up in the immediate future.  The main wildcard on the supply side commentary is Glencore’s 500K of missing capacity, which could come back online at any point, but like Nyrstar’s Middle Tennessee operations, will most likely take 6 to 12 months to hit full production.

Nevertheless, in the zinc market’s current state, I think we’re in for higher prices at least until some point in 2018, when Glencore and some new production capacity can possibly send some doubt or correction into the zinc price.  In the meantime, could the $3000 per tonne level be achieved? I don’t see why not.

World Zinc Demand

Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group

 

Zinc’s bullish narrative is based on falling supply; prices must rise to bring on more production and to force end use manufacturers into using other metals for their products and, thus, erode the currently steady zinc demand profile.

 

In the weeks ahead, I’m going to take a closer look at the zinc exploration and development companies, which I believe are in a great position to provide us with good speculative value during this zinc bull market.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review, become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – for FREE!

 

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

Sources:

Australian Atlas of Minerals Resources, Mines & Processing Centres

CEO.ca – #zinc

Geo Science World

Geology for Investors

International Zinc Association

University of Tasmania

U.S. Geological Survey

Zinc Die Casting

 

Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not an investment professional, nor do I know you and your specific investment criteria. Please due your own due diligence. I have NOT been compensated to write this article and do NOT have a business relationship with any of the companies mentioned in this report. I do NOT own shares in any company mentioned.

 

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Lithium’s NexGen? – Neo Lithium

Neo Lithium

For those who read my report on lithium, you know that I think the future is bright. Due to the attention that lithium has received, however, many moose pasture projects have entered the market and pose a real threat for those who don’t perform their due diligence and dig into the real story behind a prospective investment.

Today, I’m excited to share with you a lithium company whose project has the 3rd best lithium grades in the world, the lowest concentrations of impurities in the business, and the cash to PUSH it all the way to a feasibility study, which is currently set for Q3 or Q4 of 2018.

This company is Neo Lithium. At PDAC this year, I had the chance to speak to Carlos Vicens, Neo’s CFO and just recently I exchange emails with CEO Waldo Perez. This report is a culmination of the notes I took from the conversations as well as my due diligence.

Let’s take a look:

 

Neo Lithium (NLC:TSXV)

MCAP – $124 million (at the time of writing this report)

Shares Outstanding – 88.6 million

Fully Diluted Shares – 109.6 million

  • $25 million bought deal Private Placement closed on February 22, 2017
    • 7 million shares at $1.10 and a full warrant at $1.40 for a period of 18 months

Cash Position – $39 million as of September 30, 2016

Insider Ownership – 20%

  • Refer to SEDAR and SEDI for the most accurate information

 

 

Neo Lithium’s People:

  • Neo is led by President and CEO, Waldo Perez. Perez has 28 years combined experience in academia and within the mining industry. He has held senior positions with Barrick Gold, IAMGOLD, Latin America Minerals and Lithium Americas Corporation. Perez is highly respected by his peers for his geological knowledge and experience in lithium brine exploration. His intellectual acumen is further demonstrated by the proprietary lithium extraction process that he and Neo Lithium Technical Advisory Team member, Dr. Claudio Suarez-Authievre, co-developed for Cauchari Salar.
  • Neo Lithium’s Technical Advisory Team is made up of three members who have worked with Perez at previous companies and, most importantly, have lithium brine work experience in South America’s Lithium Triangle.
    • Project Manager, Martin Erroz, brings 15 years of experience to Neo, having worked for a number of different companies over the course of his career, including: Lithium Americas Corp. and Latin America Minerals.
    • Mark King is a hydro geologist by trade and has 25 years of experience in academia and the mining industry. King specializes in ground water flow and migration of constituents dissolved in groundwater, making him a welcome addition to any lithium brine team.
    • Last but not least, Dr. Claudio Suarez-Authievre, whom I mentioned earlier, brings 17 years of experience in academia and the mining industry. Suarez-Authievre has worked for SQM and Lithium Americas Corp., and is now Process Engineer Manager at Neo.
  • Neo’s CFO is Carlos Vicens, and the Board of Directors includes: Constantine Karayannopoulos (Chairman), Thomas Pladsen, Gabriel Pindar and Paul Fornazzari.

 

Jurisdiction Argentina:

  • President – Mauricio Macri
  • Macri has outlined a pro-business agenda for his government, which he has started to execute since his inauguration. His pro-business agenda is headlined with:
    • Filling his cabinet with former business executives.
    • Eliminated currency and trade controls and cut government spending
    • Cutting export taxes, most importantly on mineral products.
  • Attracting foreign investment, most importantly, repairing the relationship with the United States. As reported by Reuters on March 24, 2016, Barrack Obama stated, “Argentina is re-assuming its traditional leadership role in the region and around the world.” From the same article,Reuters reports, “The American Chamber of Commerce in Argentina said U.S. firms would invest $2.3 billion in Argentina over the 18 months, including more than $100 million each from General Motors Co., Dow Chemical Co., AES Corp. and Ford Motor Co.”
  • These are great signs for there being a change in global perspective, one that will only help future investment in the country and make it safer for our investment dollars.
  • Argentina was the host of the World Economic Forum on Latin America, April 5-7, 2017. The event brought clashes between protestors and police, and was said to be provoked by Macri’s cuts to government spending.
    • The Euronews reports, “Protesters in Argentina have clashed with police during demonstrations against government austerity measures…Left-wing politician Alejandro Bodart said: ‘Macri will open the World Economic Forum and economists from around the world will come— they are all neo-liberal. There will also be business leaders who will come to discuss how to continue stealing the riches of our people, how to continue with plans to exclude one section of society so as to enrich the same old ones.’ ” ~ Euronews

It isn’t all rosy in Argentina, but many, including Neo CEO, Waldo Perez, believe that Argentina’s future is bright. In response to my question regarding Argentina’s outlook for the future, Perez responded,

“The outlook is very positive, favourable to foreign investors and pro-business.”

NOTE: The 3Q project is subject to a 3% royalty as outlined in the 3Q Technical Report,

“Article 6th of Provincial Law # 4757, establishes a mining royalty of 3% over the mineral value at mine mouth (Boca Mina). According to the National Law for the reordering on the Mining sector, the law applies for coordinating and organizing the payment of royalties to the Provincial Tax Collectors, therefore LIEX S.A. is required to pay the aforementioned 3% Boca Mina royalty to the provincial government of Catamarca.” ~ Technical Report – page.19

I think that the risk to reward potential of Neo Lithium, from a jurisdictional perspective, is worth the speculation, because assets like the 3Q property don’t come along very often.

 

 

Neo Lithium’s Property:

Tres Quebradas (3Q) Lithium Project

  • 100% owned by Neo Lithium
  • Located in northern Argentina, 25 km from Chilean border, in the southwest portion of the Catamarca Province.
  • Within approximately 200 km of the Chilean Pacific coast – Port of Caldera (Copiapo)
  • Closet city is the town of Fiambala, which is approximately 100 km east of the project.
  • The 3Q property is accessible via a road which stretches up to the Northern Target area. In my conversation with Perez, I asked him about the property’s accessibility for trucks that would be transporting the lithium concentrate now and in the winter. He responded,

“Trucks with 15t [of] brine are already operating, transporting brine to the ponds. The [3Q] area is cold in winter but [there] is no snow near the salar, the salt precludes snow accumulation. We will operate all winter.”

  • Total property size is 350 square kilometers.
  • Exploration has been concentrated in, but not limited to, the Northern portion of the salar and brine complex, where very high grade targets have been found.
    • Northern Target area measures 20 km by 5 km
    • The latest drill results, release on March 20th, show that the project has a lot of potential to expand outside of the Northern Target.  The southern target results have lithium and potassium grades that are lower than those those in the Northern Target, but are still high in comparison to others found in the lithium triangle. Check out the news release for more detail.
  • A geophysical survey of the Northern Target reservoir supports the 20 km by 5 km area and that the reservoir extends down 100m.
    • Brine Reservoir average lithium concentration, thus far, is 895 mg/L, making it the 3rd highest grade lithium project in the world and 1st in Argentina.
    • Brine Reservoir average Potassium grade is 7,694 mg/L.
    • Salar samples contain an average lithium concentration of 784 mg/L and an average potassium concentration of 6,796 mg/L.
    • Very low magnesium and sulphate impurities, in fact, they are the lowest combined impurity content of any known salar. This is a HUGE plus for Neo, as high grades of lithium can lose their lustre when mixed with high magnesium and sulphate contents, as they affect the cost of brine processing.
    • The average magnesium/lithium ratio is 1.58 in the brine reservoir and 1.87 in the salar.
    • The average sulphate/lithium ratio is 0.67 in the brine reservoir and 0.46 in the salar.
  • Last year, the company, along with two engineering firms, Novigi Ltd. and Celimin, conducted a lithium processing test on a 0.5 tonne sample from the Northern Target area. The test concluded that the brine will not require any additives for lithium extraction and will be able to rely on solar evaporation for lithium concentrating.
    • In my discussion with Vicens at PDAC, he stated that the evaporation ponds will be located close to the northern target, yet still in range of an existing dirt road for trucks to pick up the concentrate and ship to the refineries.
    • Brine can be concentrated up to 4.6% Li with minimal reagent consumption, and up to 7% with further evaporation.
    • Pond recoveries are estimated at 25 tonnes of lithium carbonate per hectare of pond constructed.
      • Example – The area needed to extract 20,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year, 800 ha. This is less than a quarter of the flat property that they own.

 

Potential Fatal Flaw

The Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) should provide us with the best gauge as to what the upside potential is for the 3Q project.  The PEA is scheduled for Q3 of 2017, giving us very important insight in the near future.

Poor economics could leave this project to collect dust, but given what we have seen in Neo’s drill results, Li and K concentrations are impeccable and impurities are low. The biggest questions may lie in the actual size of the lithium resource and whether or not it can be concentrated.

  • A resource estimate is due in the very immediate future, Q2 2017, and should give a good indication of the PEA potential.
  • On-site evaporation testing will need to confirm that the engineering firm test results are reliable.

 

UPDATE – April 25, 2017

This update is to address a couple of potential issues that weren’t included in my original write- up for Neo Lithium.  I contacted CEO, Waldo Perez, and Investor Relations representative, Ali Mahdavi, and asked them questions that should help shed some light on these potential issues.

Question #1

Brian: Is the 3Q Project property considered a Ramsar site? If so, how do you plan to deal with permitting?

 Waldo: THE PERMIT HAS ALREADY BEEN OBTAINED. THE COMPANY IS FULLY PERMITED TO DRILL, BUILD PILOT PONDS, LABS, ROADS,  AND PERMANENT CONSTRUCTIONS AT THE SITE. A RAMSAR SITE DOES NOT IMPOSE LIMITATIONS FOR MINING, FORESTRY, INDUSTRIES OR ANY OTHER ACTIVITY. A RAMSAR SITE ONLY CONTEMPLATES WETLANDS. THE SALAR IS NOT A WETLAND AND THE TARGET AREA IS NOT LOCATED IN A WETLAND. THERE IS A WETLAND 50 KM SOUTH OF THE PROJECT.

Brian: As you describe, the permit that Neo attained was for preliminary work on the project, exploration, pilot ponds, etc. My concern is more with regards to bringing the project to production in the future; could the Ramsar designation hinder your attempts to attain a permit to extract the brine in a commercial scenario? Secondly, my concern is with the extraction of the water/brine from the salar affecting the wetlands south of the project. Is that a viable concern?

Waldo: NO, ONCE THE EXPLORATION AND DEVEOLOPMENT PERMIT IS OBTAINED, THE GOVERNMENT CANNOT DENY THE NEXT STAGE PERMIT. IT NEVER HAPPENED IN THE PAST. THERE IS MINING OPERATIONS IN RAMSAR SITES AND THERE ARE 1 MILLION PEOPLE LIVING IN ANOTHER RAMSAR SITE IN ARGENTINA. ARGENTINA HAS 5 MILLON SQUARE KILOMETERS OF RAMSAR SITES. THEY HAVE NO LEGAL PROTECTION STATUS OF ANY KIND. SO THERE IS NO LIMITATIONS ON WHAT CAN BE DONE, BUT OBVIOUSLY THE WETLAND ASPECTS OF THE SITES (AND PARTICULARLY NESTING SITES) MUST BE PROTECTED. WITHIN THE LITHIUM PROJECT THERE IS NO NESTING SITES. THE SITES IN THE SOUTH WITH NESTING SITES ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN THE SALAR, SO WHATEVER IS DONE IN THE SALAR WILL HAVE NO IMPACT IN THE NESTING SITE.

 

Question #2

Brian: Will Neo’s evaporation ponds encroach upon flamingo nesting grounds?

Waldo: NO. FLAMINGO NESTING AREAS ARE 50 KM AWAY.

 

Question #3

Brian: Why is it primarily the Northern Target that sees the high lithium grades? Why isn’t the grade more uniform across the entire system?

Waldo: MOST LIKELY BECAUSE THE INFLOW OF HOT SPRINGS WITH LITHIUM IS FROM THE NORTH, CREATING A LITHIUM GRADIENT. ALSO THE LAKE IS A NATURAL EVAPORATION POND, INCREASING LITHIUM GRADE IN THE NORTH

 

Question #4

Brian: Will high iron levels brought into the salar by the hot springs and 3Q river prevent the brine from being concentrated into battery grade lithium carbonate?

Waldo: THERE IS NO IRON IN THE BRINE. IRON PRECIPITATES OUT OF THE SALAR. THE RED COLOUR YOU SEE IN THE HOT SPRING IS MOSTLY A BACTERIAL EFFECT.

Brian: My reference to high iron levels is from what I read in the Technical Report, page 38;

“High levels of dissolved iron and manganese are present in the discharge of the Tres Quebradas River, and widespread rust-coloured precipitate of iron hydroxide can be seen in the diffuse flow issuing from the alluvial fan (Photo 6.1). The thick occurrence of this material throughout the discharge zone indicates the flow is anoxic (strongly reducing) prior to discharge. Elevated levels of manganese in this discharge may be the source of the dark colouration noted for Laguna Tres Quebradas.”

Since it is a closed system, will these high levels of dissolved iron impact the brine ability to be concentrated into battery grade lithium carbonate?

Waldo: THE HIGH LEVELS REFER TO GEOCHEMICAL ANOMALIES FOR FRESH WATER COMPARISON. THERE IS BARELY ANY IRON IF YOU COMPARE THIS TO THE IRON CONTENTS OF PEGMATITES. THIS IRON AND THE MANGANESE DISSOLVED IN BRINE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN THE PROCESS, ACTUALLY, ALL PRECIPITATES IN THE FIRST STAGES OF EVAPORATION.

 

Environmental issues can quickly become costly or even prevent a mining project from getting started. In Neo’s case, CEO, Waldo Perez, gives a very direct answer to my questions regarding the Ramsar site designation and its possible future ramifications.

You be the judge. Neo has a ton of positive characteristics, many of which I believe make it a world-class lithium deposit. That said, these potential environmental issues could have an impact on Neo’s future if they don’t play out as Perez suggests.

 

Despite these potential flaws, I’m extremely encouraged by what I see in Neo Lithium:

  • A management and technical team led by Waldo Perez, which has been together for a number of years but, most importantly, have done it before with Lithium Americas.
  • 3rd highest lithium concentrations in the world.
  • Lowest Impurities of any known salar– Magnesium and Sulphate.
  • Short term PUSH from a resource estimate in Q2 of 2017 and a PEA in Q3 of 2017.

 

I believe that in the not-too-distant future, the 3Q Project will be considered lithium’s equivalent to uranium’s world-class Arrow Deposit. I’m a buyer and am optimistic about lithium’s future but, even if I wasn’t, I would still believe that Neo Lithium’s 3Q project is world-class, making it a great addition to anyone’s portfolio. I look forward to the news that’s to come in the remainder of 2017.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – it’s FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not an investment professional, nor do I know you and your specific investment criteria. Please do your own due diligence. I have NOT been compensated to write this article and do NOT have a business relationship with Neo Lithium. However, I do own shares in Neo Lithium. Please check SEDAR for the most accurate data regarding Neo Lithium information and analytics.

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Zinc’s Bullish Narrative – Part 1 – A look at Supply

Zinc Price

Zinc has exploded upward from its low in January of 2016 and it doesn’t appear to be coming down any time soon. Supply constraints caused by mine closures, mining issues and Glencore’s 500K tonne production cut have led the way to higher zinc prices in 2016.

Zinc Price

Source: London Metals Exchange

To understand this bullish trend in zinc prices, I’ve put together a 2-part series examining the supply and demand fundamentals of the zinc industry.

Here, in Part 1, I’ll examine the supply side of the zinc market, including a few tidbits on the zinc mineralization and the ore bodies in which it’s found.

Enjoy!

 

Zinc Mining

There’s an abundance of zinc in the earth’s crust, but like many metals, abundance doesn’t necessarily mean it can be extracted economically at the current price. Because of zinc’s relative abundance and important uses, zinc is mined in over 50 countries. Here’s a look at the current world zinc reserves:

 

World Zinc Reserves

Source: U.S. Geological Survey

 

Some commonly found mineral forms of zinc are:

  • Sphalerite (zinc blende) – the most commonly mined zinc mineral in the world. The Sphalerite Mineral contains 67% zinc.
  • Marmatite – a zinc-iron sulfide, which is commonly found but rarely mined
  • Smithsonite (calamine) – zinc carbonate, typically found near surface
  • Hemimorphite – hydrated silicate
  • Willemitte

 

Zinc mineralization is commonly found in 4 types of ore bodies:

  • Volcanic hosted Massive Sulfides (VMS)
    • “[VMS] deposits are predominantly stratiform accumulations of sulfide minerals that precipitate from hydrothermal fluids at or below the sea floor, in a wide range of ancient and modern geological settings (Figs. 1, 2). They occur within volcanosedimentary stratigraphic successions, and are commonly coeval and coincident with volcanic rocks. As a class, they represent a significant source of the world’s Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag ores”~ Geo Science World
  • Carbonate hosted Lead-Zinc  (Mississippi Valley and Irish Types)
    • “These ore bodies tend to be compact, fairly uniform plug-like or pipe-like replacements of their host carbonate sequences… Mississippi Valley Type or MVT ore deposits, after a number of such deposits along the Mississippi River in the United States…  Irish-type carbonate lead-zinc ores, exemplified by Lisheen Mine in County Tipperary, are formed in similar ways.” ~Wikipedia
  • Sediment hosted (SEDEX deposits)
    • “SEDEX deposits form deep under the ocean where vents in the sea floor allow hydrothermal fluids to mix with seawater.  These hot, saline fluids have percolated through several kilometers of sediments and crystalline rocks, picking up precious metals along the way. As the metal-rich hydrothermal fluids hit the cool sea water, they precipitate material onto the sea floor at and near the vents.  Metal-rich minerals are deposited between layers of fine-grained mud, sand and silt.”~ Geology for Investors
  • Intrusion related (high sulfidation, skarn, manto, vein)
    • “These deposits are typically found in carbonate rocks in conjunction with magmatic-hydrothermal systems and are characterized by mineral association of calcium and magnesium. Typically the ore body contains more lead than zinc and is associated with silver.” ~International Zinc Association

 

Zinc is mined in the traditional manners: Underground, in an open pit, or a combination of the two. To note, underground zinc mining is the most common process, representing more than 60% of annual production.

NOTE: Zinc deposits aren’t unlike many other mineral deposits, in that they do have a number of issues that prevent projects from being economic. Here’s a brief list of some of the issues: Poor by-product grades, low grade zinc, remote deposit locations and high impurities such as manganese.

The zinc ore is drilled or blasted, the rough ore is then brought to the surface or to an area on the surface where it is crushed and finely ground. For efficiency and economics, the finely ground ore is then processed through a froth flotation circuit where the zinc concentration is increased anywhere from 3.5 to 15% to an average of around 50%.

The froth flotation process is as follows:

  • Zinc ore, water and chemicals are mixed together in banks of flotation cells.
  • Air is then constantly blown into the cell, providing constant agitation of the solution.
  • The zinc sulphide particles stick to the air bubbles which rise to the top of the cell.
  • The tailings or unwanted metals of the solution sink to the bottom of the cell, leaving the concentrated zinc sulphide on the surface.
  • After a period of time, the zinc sulphide concentrate can be skimmed from the cell’s surface, dried and packaged for delivery to the smelter, where the concentrate will be further refined.
    • Not all concentrates are created equal, as the residual elements such as the amount of iron make some concentrates more desirable than others due to their lower refinement costs.
  • It should be highlighted that the transportation of the concentrate to the smelter is the mine’s responsibility and, therefore, in some cases, makes up a huge portion of their cost. Needless to say, it’s an advantage to have a smelter in close proximity to the zinc mine.

 

NOTE: In addition to the zinc concentrate, other base metal concentrates such as lead and copper concentrate are commonly created.  Base and precious metal by-products can really add to the bottom line and, in some cases, they are the reason the deposit is economic. In turn, however, when these by-product metal prices fall, so do the economics of the mine which depends on them.

 

 

Zinc Mine Supply

World Zinc Supply

Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group

 

Zinc is mined all around the world, but a couple of spots in particular make up roughly half of the world’s mine production each year; China and Peru. In reality, China is the heavyweight when it comes to zinc production as its 5.5 million tonnes of zinc production is 4 times as much as the next largest producer, Peru, with 1.3 million tonnes. Australia is an honourable mention as before 2016, it held the position as the 2nd largest zinc producer in the world.

Over the last year, China has ramped up its production by almost 20%, however, this big leap in mine production was almost erased by the drop in production by the rest of the world. In total, 2016 ended with 22 more tonnes produced than 2015. The caveat to this analysis is that any data from China should be taken with caution as it may not be completely reliable.

The countries with the largest drops in zinc mine production since 2015 were Australia at -43.1% or 680K tonnes, India at -16.8% or 138K tonnes, Peru at -6.0% or 85 tonnes, and the United States at -2.3% or 19 tonnes.

 

Zinc Mine Production versus Refinement

Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group

 

Australia

Australia’s production was drastically cut in 2016 due to the shutting down of MMG’s Century Mine. Century was Australia’s largest open cut zinc mine and was highly valued by smelters because its zinc concentrate had such low iron content, which helped minimize the smelter’s refinement costs.  The Century Mine’s loss of production will have to be filled by an increase in production from other mills or new zinc mines coming into production, or a combination of the two.

Additionally, on October 9, 2015, Glencore announced a reduction in its mine production by 500K, or a third of their annual zinc metal production, across their operations in Australia, South America and Kazakhstan. The reason for the reduction? The company states that the low zinc and lead prices do not properly reflect the metals scarcity and, therefore, they’re moving ahead with the cut in production until prices rise.  Glencore’s reduction affects its Australian mines by approximately 380K tonnes, and its Peruvian operations by 80K tonnes.  As the zinc price rises, Glencore may decide to bring this production back online , which will not happen overnight, but will have an impact on the zinc market supply dynamics when it does.

 

India

Indian zinc is mined by Hindustan Zinc Limited (HZ) a subsidiary of Vedanta Limited. HZ’s production is led by their flagship operation, the Rampura Aqucha Mine (RAM), which has a zinc reserve of 51.1 mt at 14.0% Zn, and an ore capacity of 6.15 mtpa. Details can be found in HZ corporate presentation from last summer and the summer of 2015. In particular, look at the last slide of 2015’s presentation. The last slide details HZ’s mine reserves, highlighting the quickly declining open pit portion of the Rampura Aqucha mine. The open pit will be depleted by 2018, removing a significant source of zinc from the global market. The plan is to transition this into an underground mine, where there is still a substantial amount of zinc contained, however, they’ve experienced issues with the transition.

 

United States

American zinc mine production was impacted by Nyrstar’s placing of its Middle Tennessee Mines (MTN) on care and maintenance. The news release issued on December 7, 2015 outlines that the company’s decision to put the mining operation on care and maintenance was related to the current zinc price and, therefore, to minimize their cash consumption, they had to take action. MTN’s impact on the market is around 50K tonnes per annum.

On January 7, 2016 Nyrstar announced the formal launch of the sale process for all or the majority of its mining assets. Further, on September 27, 2016, Nyrstar announced that it would be restarting its MTN operations, given the rise in the zinc price and its expected sustainability in the future. The restart of MTN will cost USD $14 million, and it will take over a year until the mill is at full production.  Given the current bullish outlook for zinc prices, I think that these assets will find a buyer.

Also, American production will be affected by zinc production declines from one of the world’s largest producing mines, Teck’s Red Dog, which is located in Alaska. In early 2016, Teck announced a forecasted reduction in its zinc production in the years ahead; see SEDAR for further information.

 

Future Mine Production (Restarts / New)

There are some new and existing mining projects that are scheduled to come online in the next few years, stretching out to 2021. Here’s a list of the biggest 4:

There are a more projects planned over the same time period, but each is much smaller in size than the 4 that I have listed here.

 

Mine Contractions and Closures

While there are a few big mines coming back online or starting up, there are a number of closures and contractions that will occur over the next 5 years. The production contraction is headlined by Teck’s Red Dog, Sumitomo’s San Cristobal and Glencore’s Mt Isa, which will all see a steady decline in their output. Mine closures are headlined by the HZ’s RAM open pit and Kayad, Sterlite’s Skorpion (Closure by 2021) and Glencore’s Bracemac-McL in Canada, which is on pace for closure in 2019.

There are more contractions and closures albeit they are much smaller than the ones listed. Cumulatively, however, there is roughly 1,000K tonnes being removed from the market. Unfortunately, we may be able to count on the loss of production with more confidence than the mine expansions and re-starts.

 

Zinc Stockpiles

Besides mine production, another source of zinc in world markets is from stockpiles.  The International Lead and Zinc Study Group data shows that zinc stockpile inventories have been steadily dropping over the course of the last 4 years. Currently, world zinc inventories sit at 1.3 million tonnes, down 82K tonnes from last year. Currently, the largest stockpile holders are the producers and the London Metals Exchange, which both have inventories around 400k tonnes.

 

Concluding Remarks

In all, zinc mine production has been relatively flat over the last 4 years, with an increase of only 330K tonnes since 2012. As discussed, MMG’s Century mine production is gone and will need to be filled with new production, if that deficit is to be filled. Glencore’s missing 500K tonnes of production will have an effect on the market when it returns, but that won’t happen overnight. Using Nyrstar’s Middle Tennesse Mine as a gauge for re-start, I think that you can expect it to take 6 to 12 months for Glencore to be back at full production. Finally, India’s giant zinc mine is making a big transition moving to underground mining; time will tell if they are able to maintain production levels from this prolific mine site.  Mine production is falling faster than it’s being replaced, and the bottom line, in my mind anyway, is that until Glencore announces they are bringing their missing capacity back online, the diminishing zinc supply will lead to higher prices.

Disregarding China, the impact of new and re-starting mines will almost be nullified by the amount of mine production contractions and closures over the next 5 years. If new projects aren’t developed, we could be standing in much of the same position that we’re in today, as far as supply is concerned.

China will have an impact on the future of the zinc market – the size of this impact is what’s in question. What’s surprising is that China is paying closer attention to the environmental and safety impacts of mining and manufacturing.  Inspections over the last year have resulted in production suspensions and closures of the smaller producers that couldn’t comply with the more stringent regulations. I think China will continue to lead in zinc production in comparison to the rest of the world, however, the current large difference in production levels may not be as significant in the future as it is today.

Zinc supply fundamentals are bullish, but don’t tell us the whole story. In Part 2 of this series on zinc, I will take a look at world zinc consumption, which should allow us to make some conclusions about where the zinc market is headed in the months and years ahead.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review, become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – for FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

Sources:

Australian Atlas of Minerals Resources, Mines & Processing Centres

CEO.ca – #zinc

Geo Science World

Geology for Investors

International Zinc Association

University of Tasmania

U.S. Geological Survey

Zinc Die Casting

 

Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not an investment professional, nor do I know you and your specific investment criteria. Please due your own due diligence. I have NOT been compensated to write this article and do NOT have a business relationship with any of the companies mentioned in this report. I do NOT own shares in any company mentioned.

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A Conversation with John Hunt – Author, Doctor and Speculator

John Hunt

Throughout human history “imagined orders,” a term coined by Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens, have been used to control populations. Harari states,

“Imagined orders are not evil conspiracies or useless mirages. Rather, they are the only way large numbers of humans can cooperate effectively.” ~ Sapiens – pg.110

It’s vital to define the words we use so that our perspectives can be fully understood. This being the case, I believe Harari would define ‘imagined orders’ as a set of principles that are not rooted in objective validity, meaning they don’t have ties to the laws of biology, physics and chemistry, that govern our world.

‘Imagined order’ is inter-subjective, meaning that even if one person’s consciousness is able to escape the grip of the imagined order, the mass consciousness is unaffected. Examples of inter-subjective concepts are: law, money, gods, nations and schooling.

By now, I’m sure you’re thinking, ‘okay what’s his point?’ My point is that we’re all free to make our own choices, but it’s my contention that on a grand scale, more and more people are relying on the State to make their decisions for them, further expanding the imagined order of our world. The ability to critically think and question our current state of being is lacking, and from my perspective, it’s only going to get worse unless we’re able to wake from this slumber.

Today, I have for you an interview with John Hunt. John is a pediatrician and Chief Medical Officer at Liberty Healthshare, which is a health sharing ministry created to help families combat the burden of excessive health care costs. He has also written a number of books that include Your Child’s Asthma, Assume the Physician, Higher Cause, and his most recent, a series of books collaboratively written with Doug Casey, the High Ground Novel Series; Speculator was released last year, and the next book, Drug Lord, will be released this summer.

Now, Speculator was my first introduction to John, but I found that book so fascinating and important on so many different levels, that I thought it made good sense to interview John to get to know the man behind this masterpiece a little better. If you haven’t already, be sure to read my recent interview with John’s co-author, Doug Casey.

During our conversation, Hunt and I discussed a few of the inter-subjective concepts that I discussed earlier, as well as his two recent books, Speculator and Drug Lord. Check it out, there’s a lot of value to be gleaned from his answers, actionable wisdom that can be applied in all areas of your life.

 

Brian: You have a very interesting background, majoring in geology at Amherst College and then receiving your medical doctorate from George Washington University.

To me, geology and medicine seem to be worlds apart. How or why did you choose this path for your education?

John: Amherst was a reasonably classical liberal arts college back then, before it became one of the zillion progressive arts indoctrination centers it is now. It doesn’t matter what your major is in true liberal arts—the idea is to teach your brain how not lie to itself. Unfortunately, progressive arts teaches the opposite skill.

Geology teaches a brain how to think in four temporal-spatial dimensions concurrently with ongoing physics and chemistry, with a good smattering of economics in there too. It’s preparation for anything that requires rational intelligence later. Certainly it’s good prep to help holistically think about patients. I didn’t realize all this at the time. I was just a dumb kid that enjoyed rocks and liked the geo professors. My geology training helped a lot while writing Speculator with Doug Casey, though.

 

Brian: In my opinion, the general population’s ability to think critically is on a steady decline. Following the birth of my first child, I started reading books about education and the different schools of thought for how children are best educated. In particular, two books stood out from the rest; Dumbing us Down and Weapons of Mass Instruction by John Taylor Gatto. Gatto, the former winner of the New York State Teacher of the Year award, tells a fascinating story of the American education system. In essence, I believe his message to the reader is that the essential function of the school system is to produce good employees, which yield unwaveringly to authority and stick to the status quo of social norms.

I have a two-part question for you; First, do you agree with Gatto’s thesis regarding the American education system? And second, if so, what needs to occur in order for it to change?

John:  Gatto’s work influenced my thinking a lot, so it’s no surprise I agree with him. Schools indoctrinate kids into doing what authorities tell them to do, while video games numb children’s brains to suicidal military missions from which they fancifully can keep coming back to life. The kids are prepped to be either obedient serfs or cannon fodder.  Some go on to college to pay the hyperinflated tuitions that result from too much money available in the form of college debt. Without the feds in there, college tuitions would be much cheaper, but the kids didn’t get taught that in school, so they get suckered into selling their lives as indentured servants, paying off forever the company store owned by the government. Politicians claim to fight to create jobs (work) on the one hand while fighting also for shorter work weeks (less work) on the other hand. How about the politicians stand up for freedom instead of work, and let us figure out what we want to do with our freedom? Back to education—to fix it, the governments have to get out of the way. Then the inventors can invent, and the people—instead of the politically powerful—can choose their education. That’s all it takes. Ain’t gonna happen though, so the answer is that the parents and students need to ignore and avoid the government and its subsidies and insanities, and not just in the educational sector, but everywhere government inserts its parasitic tendrils.

 

Brian: I believe the power of exponential growth is not fully appreciated or understood by most people. Human evolution has grown leaps and bounds in the last Century from a technological standpoint, and it doesn’t appear to be slowing. In fact, author Ray Kurzweil wrote in his book, The Singularity is Near, that with the current pace of technological advancements, humans will merge with machines by 2050 and begin to explore the stars.

Do you agree with Kurzweil’s statement about the current pace of technological advancement and his prognostication about our merger with machines?

John:  It’s already happening. The question is will the free market producers much longer be able to outpace the parasitic majority who have been taught in their schools and colleges that stealing from others and enslaving them is their right. By that I mean all the egregious taxation we now suffer that is far outside of the US Constitutional limits (theft), and foolishness such as the right to health care (aka the belief that you have the right to compel someone to provide you with healthcare). If the free market can be left to grow, reasonably unabated, then within a thousand years freedom will bring humans to immortality, incredible power, and near omniscience. But if those who preach the ends justify the means philosophy keep control of the education system, media and politics, then ignorance and immorality will prevail and we’ll fall back into dark ages. Any species in the universe that is even 10,000 years ahead of us evolutionarily won’t allow us to become a member of their galactic club of omniscience and omnipotence if our species still thinks initiation of force and fraud is acceptable. Those alien types (legal or illegal) will keep us down until we grow up, and swat us like flies if we forcibly encroach upon them. So we libertarian types need to gain the cultural ascendency and teach the moral high ground for our species to thrive.

 

Brian: Although I still struggle with this sometimes, my biggest take-away from your book, Speculator, was the importance of listening to your gut.

In the book, Uncle Maurice gives Charles the following advice,

“Contrary to common opinion, intuition wasn’t mystical; it was scientific. Intuition was the ability to properly integrate many subtle pieces of information. To have good intuition, therefore, someone needs experience and data and a logical mind that can fuse them into coherence” ~ Speculator (PDF pg.17).

There are a lot themes in Speculator. Is there any particular lesson or theme that you wanted to bestow upon the reader, and if so, what? Why now?

John:  Listening to your gut works well, but only if you aren’t prone to lying to yourself. Most people lie to themselves to protect their ego from their own internal contradictions. Internal contradictions induce stress unless the person deals with them or refuses to perceive them. Example—college tuitions rise not because of better teaching, but because of poor stewardship of resources by academics (equivalent to bad fiscal policy) and the ever increasing flood of easy money (equivalent to bad monetary policy). The solution the progressive have for high tuition? Make more easy loans available! That of course was the cause of the problem in the first place but they are in denial about this internal contradiction. They lie to themselves.  Another example—medical costs are sky high because of insurance intermediacy and the third party payor mentality—called moral hazard. Moral hazard leads to price inflation, and in health care it is caused by insurance. The response of both progressives and conservatives? To mandate or subsidize insurance—the very thing that caused the problem. To survive with such blatant internal contradictions again requires prominent denial of reality. People lie to themselves all the time. The sequel to Speculator, which is titled Drug Lord, is about the epidemic of people lying to themselves. But the theme of Speculator and the whole series is that morality (natural law) trumps civil law (political law) any day of the week and twice on Tuesdays.

 

Brian: While there’s an obvious connection between Doug Casey and the speculation theme in the book, how would you describe your connection? Are you a speculator?

John: At this point in economic history, stock market investors are really all speculators. The government and central banks are now every bit as influential on the success or failure of a venture as whether it produces value. What should be conscientious investment decisions instead need to be speculative guesses about what distortion the fiscal and monetary “authorities” are next going to apply to the markets. I could say that I speculate that the dollar will continue to fail, that gold and bitcoin will be money. But really I am just gambling in bitcoin because—despite my constant reading about it—too many others have far better knowledge than I do about it. I speculate that government and central bank manipulations will result in a bubble burst that will hurt everyone except those who caused it and a few who prepared. So I am at least partly prepared. But I hedge, by having investments that thrive in the political economy, although I know they will suffer when the political economy melts down. I’m a speculator, sure.

 

Brian: I recently interviewed Doug Casey, co-author of the High Ground Series, and he mentioned that the second book, Drug Lord, would be hitting the shelves this July. In the interview, Casey makes the comment,

 “we’re trying to reform the unjustly besmirched reputations of a number of highly politically incorrect occupations.” ~ Junior Stock Review Interview

Casey is referring to the reputation of a few of the figures that have been and will be featured in the books, such as speculators, drug lords and assassins.

Where do the negative connotations regarding these types of people come from? And what does it say about the social construction of our current society?

John: It’s another example of the collectivist contagion rearing its incredibly ugly head. It’s not speculation, drug dealing or assassination that is wrong per se. Speculators who profit without force or fraud are acting morally and should not be lumped in with fraudsters. Which is immoral—the drug dealer who make possible some voluntary transactions between individuals, or the pharmaceutical company that lobbies for monopoly power through unconstitutional actions of the FDA and lies with statistics to convince naïve medical academies and government guideline committees about the value of their very marginal product? In regards to assassins, the Bible does not say, “thou shalt not kill” but rather “thou shalt not kill unjustifiably”. It is a sad reality that there is no organizational concept on the planet more active in the killing of the innocent than government. Collectivists group, and then attack, the 1%, even though some of the 1% are brilliant producers who help everybody. In contrast, individualists recognize that some of the 1% are cronies, and some of the 99% are cronies, and we prefer to judge against the cronies individually. Collectivists define racism as one race oppressing another. This group think definition falsely accuses good people of being racist—based solely on the color of their skin, nullifies individual responsibility, and obviates individual power to end racism. This collectivist definition has resulted in the recent exacerbations of racism in this country. Individualists define racism in the much broader terms of discrimination based on race, which places the individual moral agent into the process of choosing right from wrong.  Overall, our culture has been infected with a destructive contagious disease called collectivism.  We need a vaccine.

 

Brian: It has been a pleasure John, thank you for answering my questions.

 

 

The imagined order of our current state of being should be questioned as a number of our society’s strongest beliefs are broken and appear to be on their way to getting worse. The ability to critically judge ourselves and the inter-subjective concepts that we live by is vitally important, in my opinion.

On another note, I’m eagerly anticipating the release of John and Doug’s latest book, Drug Lord, this summer. If it’s anything like Speculator, it’ll be a MUST read for anyone looking for an entertaining story. For those looking to explore some deeper concepts, I’m certain John and Doug will not disappoint, as they attempt to reform the unjustly besmirched reputations of a few of the society’s most politically incorrect occupations.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – for FREE!

 

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

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Gold Rush Quebec – 2017

Beaufield Resources

Quebec’s Abitibi Greenstone Belt is one of the top ranked regions in the world for mining investment attractiveness – and for good reason. Currently, there is one region in particular in the Abitibi which has attracted a lot of attention; the Urban-Barry Greenstone Belt, which sits 170 km northeast of Val d’Or and 125 km southwest of Chibougamau.

The Urban-Barry belt is located in the Abitibi sub-province of Superior. This area is underlain by Archean Volcano-Sedimentary, which mainly contains gold mineralization in quartz-carbonate veins mineralized with sulphides. Although a few of the companies in the area possess a NI 43-101 resource, the area hasn’t seen a lot of exploration, in relative terms. The area will, however, see thousands of metres of drilling over the course of 2017, which should provide insight into the value of the mineralization in the area.

What’s the source of the excitement for this region of the Abitibi? In my opinion, it’s because of the great results that Osisko Mining (OSK:TSX) has been releasing over the last few months. Their Windfall Lake Gold Deposit has had some stellar drill holes and appears to possess all of the makings of the region’s next mine.

Windfall is in close proximity to Beaufield Resources (BFD:TSXV), Bonterra Resources (BTR:TSXV), Metanor Resources (MTO:TSXV) and Urbana Corporation (URB:TSX). Each of these juniors own prospective land packages around Windfall and are fully financed to explore for the next economic gold deposit in the area.

Today, I would like to introduce you to the Beaufield Resources story.  Beaufield owns property in the heart of the Urban-Barry Belt, where it shares its border with Osisko’s Windfall Gold Deposit. I believe the company has a ton of potential, especially in the near term with its Urban property. Let’s take a look:

 

Beaufield Resources (BFD:TSXV)

  • MCAP – $28 million (at the time of writing this report)
  • Shares Outstanding – 195 million
  • Fully Diluted Shares – 215 million
    • Options – 6 million
    • Warrants – 14 million
  • Osisko owns 16.4% of the company – a sign of the potential value in the properties that Beaufield owns.
  • Closed a $6 million financing on Feb 9, 2017
    • Issuing a total of 40 million common shares at $0.10 and 13.3 million flow-through shares at $0.15.
    • O3 investments a wholly owned subsidiary of Osisko Mining subscribed to 31.7 million of these shares.
  • $8 million in working capital

 

Beaufield’s People

  • Beaufield has seen some changes in management as of late, with long time President and CEO, Jens Hansen, and Board of Directors member, Bernard Deluce, resigning.
    • Ron Stewart, a Professional Geologist with over 30 years experience within the mining industry has been appointed interim President and CEO. Stewart has experience on both sides of the table, having worked in both capital markets and as an Executive on a few junior resource companies. He has held positions with Dundee Capital Markets, Macquarie Capital Markets, Clarus Securities, Verena Minerals (now Belo Sun Mining), and Kinross Gold Corp. Presently, Stewart is also the President and CEO of Eros Resource Corporation. Stewart has a well rounded background and will be able to bridge the gap between the exiting Jen Hansen and a new, permanent CEO.
    • Robert Wares was appointed Chairman of Beaufield’s Board of Directors. Wares has over 35 years of experience in the mining industry, with a long history of success. He is credited with the discovery of the Canadian Malartic gold deposit and was a co-founder of Osisko. Wares is a fantastic edition to the Beaufield team, one that I suspect will prove to be instrumental in their success in the months ahead.
    • Mathieu Stephens is a Professional Geologist and VP of exploration and has been with Beaufield since 2008. I had the chance to speak to Stephens at PDAC this year and was very pleased with what I heard for this year’s upcoming drill program.
  • In February of this year, a press release was issued by Jim Deluce (Former BFD Director) and Shanghai Huaxin Group Limited, expressing their displeasure with the progress the company has made over the last few years, as well as with the recent financing terms, which they believe were too favourable to the financing parties (which included O3 Investments, a subsidiary of Osisko). In all, this group of concerned shareholders represents around 21.5 million shares or 11% of the company.
    • Beaufield has responded to the complaints in a news release, which can be found here. In my opinion, Beaufield has done a great job with their response and I feel comfortable as a shareholder that the situation will not affect their progress moving forward. The Beaufield shareholder’s meeting has been rescheduled for April 11, 2017.
    • Beaufield responded to my question, via email, pertaining to the concerned shareholder with, “The new Board has been endorsed by the concerned shareholders.  The Annual Meeting of Shareholders will be held onApril 11, 2017 and the shareholders will receive over the next week the proxy material. We are confident this matter is settled and that the company will be able to focus its efforts on exploration and create value for its shareholders.”

 

 

Beaufield’s Properties

  • Urban Property, located within the Urban-Barry Belt, consisting of 3 blocks of property: Rouleau Block, Golden Retriever Block and Macho Block
    • Urban Property Historic Resource (not 43-101) – 540,000 tons @ 7.2 g/t, which is roughly 125,000 oz Au
    • The Rouleau Phase 1 drill results
    • Rouleau Phase 2 drilling has begun and is focusing on deeper drilling and a series of exploration targets just beyond the known Rouleau zone. Results should be released in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
    • 1500 m from Windfall’s Caribou zone lies the ET zone of the Rouleau Block. This area is of particular interest because it shares a similar geophysical signature,
      • “A linear magnetic depression that is interpreted to be related to a magnetite destructive silica-sericite alteration corridor associated with the Windfall intrusive system.” ~ Beaufield Corporate Presentation
      • The geophysics and geology clearly indicate the presence of a fold in this area, meaning that the host lithological units of the Windfall deposit may be present within Beaufield’s ET zone.
      • Two holes will be drilled before winter is over, so we will stay tuned for those results.
    • The Golden Retriever Block is currently priority, as the Beaufield team believe that this area, which is partially covered by swamp, may be a continuation of the mineralization found in the 1980s on Osisko’s Black Dog Property. An induced polarization survey was executed on this target area and did indicate a strong chargeability anomaly.
    • The Macho Block drill program is still under consideration. If it happens it will be in the summer as Beaufield has prioritized its drilling for the immediate future.

The Urban property is the focus of my speculation, as I believe there is a ton of potential in drill results that we will see over the course of this year.  Urban, however, is just one of 5 properties that Beaufield owns; here is a hyperlinked list of Beaufield’s other 4 properties:

 

The Beaufield story is not without its potential detractors:

  • Management changes – the issues and changes within the management structure that have arisen over the last couple of months may be concerning for some. In my opinion, Beaufield has dealt with the situation well and has appointed some quality people to help add value to shareholders in the immediate future.
  • Exploration blunders – bad drill results are always a risk with mineral exploration companies, however, given the Beaufield property locations and their due diligence in preparing for their drill programs, I believe the odds of good results are closer to being in our favour.
  • Share structure – there are a lot of shares out, which is all too common for an exploration company of this age and size, however, I am willing to accept this, due to the upside potential I see with this year’s drill program results.

 

There are always detractors or potential pitfalls in every junior company’s story, but now I would like to review the reasons I believe Beaufield has such great upside potential.

  • Great land package – Not only is the Urban-Barry Belt arguably the hottest exploration area in Canada right now, but Beaufield owns some great properties in some other highly prospective areas, such as the area around Goldcorp’s Eleonore gold mine or its Trolilus-Tortigny Property, which possesses a 43-101 resource estimate (Au, Ag, Cu and Zn). There is a lot of potential in Beaufield’s properties.
  • PUSH – we should have a good idea of Beaufield’s potential in the next 6 months, giving us great short term PUSH for upside in the stock price. Plus, I wouldn’t hang my hat on this, but good results from the neighbouring Osisko, Bonterra Resouces or Metanor Resources could see a spike in all of their share prices.
  • $8 million in working capital – it is one thing to have great properties, but you need money to explore them and $8 million gives Beaufield the working capital it needs to add value for shareholders.
  • Osisko’s ownership and involvement – Osisko has a great management team and, for me, their interest in a company goes a long way. Osisko owns 16.4% of Beaufield and has one of their own, Robert Wares, on the Board of Directors. For me, this is a good indication of Beaufield’s potential.

 

You be the judge. Great properties, short term PUSH, $8 million in working capital and keen interest from one of the best junior mining teams in the mining industry. I’m biased because I bought shares within the last two weeks. Do your own due diligence and decide for yourself.

Stay tuned for a look at the other main juniors in the Urban-Barry Belt, Bonterra Resources and Metanor Resources.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review, become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – for FREE!

 

Until Next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

 

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

 

Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not an investment professional, nor do I know you and your specific investment criteria. Please due your own due diligence. I have NOT been compensated to write this article and do not have a business relationship with Beaufield Resources. However, I do own shares in Beaufield Resources.

 

 

 

 

 

Posted on

A Conversation with Doug Casey – LIFE, FREEDOM AND SPECULATION

Doug Casey

While it can be highly profitable to know which stocks the sector’s best are picking, I prefer to know the philosophy and process behind their success.

“Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.” ~ Unknown

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’ve definitely benefitted from paying attention to industry heavy hitters’ stock picks. Without a doubt, however, my biggest successes have come from applying the lessons I’ve learned about speculation from those same individuals – people like Doug Casey.

This line of thinking is what shaped the series of questions I asked Doug, and while they may seem a bit unorthodox, I believe there’s a lot of actionable wisdom to be gleaned from his answers. Look closely and you will discover what is, in my opinion, the basis for successful speculation in the most volatile market in the world, the junior resource sector.

Without further ado, A Conversation with Doug Casey:

 

Life

Brian: Last fall, in an interview with Albert Lu’s, The Power and Market Report, you mentioned that you have become less attached to physical or material things, as you’ve gotten older.

You’re still an active speculator and you speak regularly at various investment conferences around the world, so if it’s not the desire to make more so that you can buy more stuff, what motivates you to keep going?

Doug: The first rule, the prime directive of all living beings whether they be amoebas, people, corporations or governments, is to survive. And, in order to survive, you need resources. So, it’s genetically programmed into all entities to get more “stuff”, because resources helps you to survive. Of course I want more money because it allows you to do more things; money helps you to survive. Perhaps take advantage of a new technology, a break-through that enables you to live for 200 years. It’s not that I’m un-interested in a higher standard of living and more wealth. Everybody is, that’s natural. But from a psychological point of view, I’ve put it lower on the totem pole.

I’m thinking about writing a book that would be called Renaissance Man. It would centre around the three most basic verbs in every language; be, do and have. Most people concentrate on the ‘have’ verb; I want to have a new car, I want to have a new house and I want to have a new girlfriend. This is actually very stupid. The ‘having’ is not important; more important is ‘doing.’ In order to ‘have,’ you need to ‘do;’ you need to create something, you need to provide a good or service first in order to ‘have’. The ‘do’ is very important. You need to gain skills. Gaining possessions is marginal, gaining skills is much more important.

Even more important than that is the verb ‘be;’ you can change and improve your essential being. That allows you to do things, and that, in turn, allows you to have things. People just think of the end product – the have – without thinking of the ‘be’ and the ‘do.’ Of course, on the other hand, if you have stuff and you’re not corrupted, you can use the ‘have’ to facilitate your ‘doing’ and the ‘doing’ can facilitate your ‘being’ something different. It works both ways.

To answer your question, I’m trying to concentrate more on the ‘be.’

 

Brian: Last year, in an interview with Jeff Berwick, you mentioned that the book, The Market for Liberty, changed your life, transitioning your political philosophy from an Objectivist to a Libertarian. A change in political philosophy is a major transition, one of which I’m not sure every person is capable. In my view, we live in a society of paradigms or bias that lock us into thought patterns that keep many of us blind to other alternatives that may be more efficient or beneficial.

Whether it be financial, political or social, in your opinion, how does one keep an open mind and see through paradigms and their own inherent bias?

Doug: A very good question. I’ve become more pessimistic as I’ve gotten older because it occurs to me that most people, even if they use the phrase, ‘I think,’ what they really mean is ‘I feel.’ In other words, it’s not a rational process, it’s an emotional process for most people. That’s why political movements are always disasters.

In my own personal pilgrim’s progress, I started out like most kids, as a liberal. I became a conservative after I read Barry Goldwater’s, Conscience of a Conservative. It made sense, but, in high school, I had had no other political exposure. Then, after college, I read Ayn Rand’s book, Virtue of Selfishness. I suggest absolutely everyone read it. It’s only 120 pages. But it’s so brilliant I had to put it down after the first page because I was in shock. I couldn’t believe that someone could crystallize all the things that I’d thought about, but hadn’t put together yet.

Then, when I read, Market for Liberty, I realized what was wrong with Objectivism, which is actually a secular religion. Market for Liberty is an extremely important book; it shows how a society would work without government. The big problem is that everyone thinks: “what should the government do?” or “maybe if we change the government to do this instead of that, everything is going to be better,” This is completely barking up the wrong tree. The problem is the state itself; it’s government as an institution. The State is an anachronism in today’s world, it’s out-moded, it’s a stupid, destructive, coercive concept. It’s actually inherently evil. Market for Liberty explains how society might work without the State. Stop listening to liberals, conservatives, republicans and democrats; listening to them is a waste of time. That’s my take on the subject.

 

Freedom

Brian: In my opinion, the vast majority of people undervalue freedom. Instead, fear has taken over and is playing centre stage. Ironically, fear is quelled with greater government regulation and comes at the cost of our freedoms – which are diminishing by the day.

I recently read James Rickards’ latest book, The Road to Ruin, and even though I agree with him, it still surprised me to read, “Facism is not in our future, it is here now.” ~ The Road to Ruin pg.256. Over the last decade, whistle blowing has hit the mainstream, with Julian Assange and Edward Snowden becoming household names.

My question is do you think that the segment of the population that has heard the claims made by people like Assange and Snowden truly understand their magnitude? Please explain.

Doug: Apparently half of the people in the US, or thereabouts, think that Snowden and Assange are traitors, which is ridiculous. They’re heroes, both of them are heroes. I don’t know what they are like personally, but their actions are heroic. As far as what Rickards said, yes, he’s absolutely right. In fact, all the States in the world are socialist or fascist.

You have to define these terms accurately. Marx did that; he coined the term ‘capitalism,’ incidentally. He defined capitalism and socialism and, actually, using a Marxist analysis, you can define fascism as well as communism. It’s all about the means of production, ownership of property.

Fascism is an economic system, first and foremost. It’s not really about jack boots, good looking black uniforms, and soldiers goose stepping. It’s an economic system,perfected by Mussolini. It’s one where both the means of production and private goods are privately owned, however the state controls them all.

Socialism has been a disaster throughout the world, of course. It can be defined as state ownership of the means of production, but you can still own consumer goods– houses and cars and stuff like that. But the state controls it all. Fascism is much more economically productive than socialism but not nearly as productive as pure capitalism, where everything, absolutely everything, is owned—and controlled– privately. But that doesn’t exist anywhere. There are no capitalist systems in the world. They’re mostly fascist systems.

The average person conflates the government with the country; they’re different things.  Calling Assange and Snowden traitors is goofy- traitors to what? I mean, to the country? Not to the country, no, they’re trying to preserve the values of the country. Traitors to the government, which is different. Who really cares about the government? The government just a bunch of deep state types, basically criminal personalities that are controlling the country and making people think that the government is the country. It’s not. In fact, it’s a dead hand on top of the country. The fact that most people conflate these two things alone tells me that there’s no hope.

  

Speculation

Brian: While paradigms and bias give us the basis for how we view the world, emotion is the fuel that causes us to act without logic. The biggest lesson I have learned in my speculating career, thus far, is to act against the crowd and buy when everyone else is selling – and vice versa.

Would you say that you have successfully removed emotion from your speculations and investments, over the course of your speculating career? Why or Why not?

Doug: I try to, but it’s very hard to separate your rational mind from your emotions. In fact, when I feel like buying something or selling something, I say, “wait a minute, maybe I should do exactly the opposite of what I feel.” So, it’s very hard, but it’s important. If you start thinking that way, acting against your own emotions, it does improve your results because, as a general rule, you don’t want to be in what they call a ‘crowded trade,’ where everyone thinks, “yeah, this is going to happen”. Maybe there are actually good reasons why something should happen, and maybe it will happen. But, if everybody already believes that and is already long or short, there’s no profit in it, the profit is already gone.

 

Brian: Whether it’s Kondratieff wave theory or William Strauss and Neil Howe’s (authors of The Fourth Turning) analysis of the cycles of generations, human history appears doomed to repeat itself. Although, as a species, the human race is continually improving itself (the ascent of man) from a technological stand point,

Do you think we can ever break the boom and bust cycles that have been a common thread in our history?

Doug: Yes, I think we can. Boom and bust cycles have a significant psychological element, of course. But in the modern world, cyclical booms and busts, are basically a result of monetary manipulation. In other words, central banks create the business cycle. There’s a cyclical aspect to everything but central banks, which claim they exist to smooth out cycles and make things more predictable, have actually done exactly the opposite and accentuated these things.

A more basic problem is the psychological aberrations that lie within everybody’s mind. Everyone has their own set of psychological aberrations, and when you put a bunch of people together in a group the size of a nation state, they necessarily act according to the lowest common denominator, and the lowest common denominator is these psychological aberrations that make people act like chimpanzees. So, perhaps you’re never going to get rid of business cycles from a psychological point of view, but you could hugely improve things by getting rid of central banks, which create an actual monetary business cycle.

This is why the rich have been getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, whereas in the past, previous to the creation of the central banks around the world, 100 or so years ago, it was a more level playing field. The rich, not the poor, are in a position to profit from inflation.

Technology and science have made things better, of course. We would already be colonizing the moons of Jupiter if it hadn’t been for the State and the distortions that it has caused in the economy.

 

Brian: As you know, the junior resource sector is regarded as the most volatile in the world. The combination of geology, accounting and a general knowledge of markets can make the average investor or speculator feel as though the odds are perpetually against them.

In your opinion, how does one tilt the speculating playing field in their favour?

Doug: Well, I developed a mnemonic with the 9 Ps,* to help in assessing junior mining stocks, Mining is a crappy business, it’s a 19th century choo choo train business. This is why kids today aren’t going into mining. Sure, it’s fun to play in the dirt with big yellow trucks. And you need all of the things that come out of the ground. But it’s a horrible business.

It used to be a good business; you found a deposit, you developed a mine, nobody gave you any trouble, you made a lot of money. Today, it’s harder than ever, even with modern technology, to find a deposit anywhere on Earth, which is very picked over,. And mining is much more capital intensive than it used to be. You’re mining lower grade deposits, and it’s 10 years from the time you find something until the time you can start mining, because of regulations, NGOs, native groups, and taxes. It’s a horrible business.

That said, mining stocks are still the most volatile stocks in the world. But volatility isn’t your enemy. Volatility is your friend if your timing is good. Or it can be your deadly enemy if your timing is bad, obviously. *NOTE: The Nine Ps of Resource Stock Evaluation: People, Property, Phinancing, Paper, Promotion, Politics, Push, Pitfalls, Price – A Special Report Detailing each P can be downloaded for FREE from Casey Research.

Brian: In your Introduction to Strategic Investing, on page 21, you give the reader 4 steps to solidify their financial base, while providing them with protection against unexpected dangers and the liberation to become a successful speculator. The four steps are: Liquidate, Create, Consolidate and Speculate.

Strategic Investing was published in 1982; in your opinion, do these steps still hold true in today’s world? Please explain.

Doug: They are more important in today’s world than they were back then. Strategic Investing, in fact, is a very good book. About a quarter of it, or more, is about the stock market. The stock market was less than 1000 then, and I said the market was going to 3000—which people thought was absurd.. And I recommended a bunch of stocks which were yielding 10-15% in current dividends.

But at the same time, I felt – and I still do feel – that we were going to have a major depression. You have to look at western civilization itself, which has been going downhill since the start of WW1. American civilization has been going downhill since the mid ’50s, and the average American’s standard of living has been going down since the early ’70s. Now I think we are entering the trailing edge of this huge financial hurricane that we entered in 2007. You have to look at the long term time frame for all of these things.

Listen, we’re going to have a depression that, despite the huge advances in science and technology which are ongoing and wonderful, is going to be the biggest thing that has happened in modern history— much bigger than the unpleasantness of 1929 to 1946.

In that context, it makes sense to liquidate, which means get rid of everything you don’t need, that’s just a burden. Reorient yourself, consolidate, find out what you want to do, what your skills are, who your connections are. Take advantage of that. Stop thinking like an employee. And you’re going to have to learn to speculate, because in times of monetary chaos, there are a lot of opportunities for a speculator. But you have got to have the capital in order to engage in speculations, and so those 4 things, I think, are more important now than they were in ’82, which incidentally, was a very chaotic time.

 

Brian: In my opinion, your book, Speculator, can be read on a number of different levels. It’s simultaneously a great adventure story – complete with death, love and suspense – a useful guide to speculation, and a philosophical commentary on some of the most important social topics of our world. Although I still struggle with this sometimes, my biggest take-away was the importance of listening to your gut.

In the book, Uncle Maurice gives Charles the following advice,

“Contrary to common opinion, intuition wasn’t mystical; it was scientific. Intuition was the ability to properly integrate many subtle pieces of information. To have good intuition, therefore, someone needs experience and data and a logical mind that can fuse them into coherence” ~ Speculator (PDF pg.17).

With this book, was there a particular lesson or theme that you wanted to bestow upon the reader, and if so, what? Why now?

Doug: Speculator is the first in a series of 7. We’re going to release the next one in July, Drug Lord. We’re trying to reform the unjustly besmirched reputations of a number of highly politically incorrect occupations.

People automatically think, “Oh, speculator. Must be a horrible person taking advantage of the problems of poor people that are losing everything they have.” In Speculator our hero, Charles Knight, who is 23, goes to Africa, exposes a mining fraud, gets involved in a bush war and makes a huge amount of money. But he’s highly ethical. We show the speculator as a good guy.

In the next book, Charles becomes a Drug Lord, dealing in both legal and illegal drugs. We show how that business works, the morality of it, and that you can be a good guy as a drug lord, too. When he becomes an assassin in the third book, we deal with the morality and history and the techniques of an assassin.

You have to break away from the crowd. That’s the big lesson, That’s what our hero, Charles Knight, does by dropping out of high school, not going to college, and running off to Africa. He does this throughout his life, doing things that few others do.  Most people act like potted plants. They’re born some place, they grow up there and they stay there. That’s OK for plants, but it’s not a very good survival strategy for a human being. There are a lot of themes in Speculator.

 

Brian: Doug, it’s been an absolute pleasure, thank you very much for taking the time to answer my questions.

 

There isn’t just one way to be successful in life, we all have different paths to achieving our goals. There are, however, skills that we can develop, over time, that will help us overcome most obstacles that we encounter.

In this conversation with Doug, we tackled a few of the topics that I, personally, believe are major hurdles for individuals during their pursuit of wealth. These are highlights for what I believe were the most important takeaways from my conversation with Doug:

  • Stop focusing on the ‘HAVE.’ Instead, concentrate on the ‘BE’ in order to ‘DO.’
  • Read Ayn Rand’s Virtue of Selfishness, and Morris and Linda Tannehill’s, Market for Liberty. These books could change your life.
  • Liquidate, Create, Consolidate, and Speculate – There are going to be opportunities to speculate, but you will need to have the capital in order to engage. These four steps have never been more important than they are now.
  • Most importantly, be a contrarian, act opposite to the crowd, do things that nobody else is doing!
  • Watch for the release of Drug Lord in July – the next adventure in a 7 part series that began with Speculator, a story that’s not only exciting and enjoyable to read, but draws on some very important lessons for speculation and our society .

 

Don’t want to miss an investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – for FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

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Insights on the Resource Market with Brent Cook and Joe Mazumdar

In January of this year, I attended the Metals Investor Forum and heard a presentation entitled, Entering the Twilight Zone, given by Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights. Exploration Insights is a highly respected newsletter publication within the junior resource sector.

Brent Cook, the letter’s founder, is an economic geologist who has worked in the mining industry in a number of different roles. As an independent consultant, he provided advice to numerous mining companies around the world such as, Newmont Mining (Santa Fe), Freeport McMoran (Cyprus-Amax) and Rio Tinto Mining, just to name a few. Cook also worked for Rick Rule at Global Resource Investments, providing analysis and commentary on a host of different junior resource companies.

Exploration Insights added a key component to the team in 2015, with the addition of Joe Mazumdar. Previously, Mazumdar was a Senior Mining Analyst at both Canaccord Genuity and Haywood Securities. He has also worked for a number of mining companies over the course of his career, which include Newmont, IAMGOLD and Rio Tinto.

 

Entering the Twilight Zone

The title of Mazumdar’s presentation reflects where we stand in the current resource market, as most aren’t quite sure where we’re headed. One thing is for certain, however, the road ahead will be volatile as President Trump attempts to execute the promises he made during his campaign.

Here are a few notes on what Mazumdar had to say about some of the metals. These comments are summarized from my notes, please don’t take them for verbatim. If you would like to watch the presentation, you can check it out here.

Copper – Days of inventory are dropping versus a rising real copper price. Mazumdar believes this is a real trend and that an event such as the 2013 Binghamton Canyon landslide disaster would certainly lead to a price spike.

Uranium – The supply overhang is still very large, it’s going to take a couple of years to unwind. Mazumdar believes that if you want to participate in the uranium sector now, buy a good uranium explorer, as most of the producers can’t make money at this U3O8 price.

Gold – The gold price is rising in all of the world’s major currencies, which is a very good sign for the future of gold, and a glimpse into how much uncertainty still exists in the market. Trump is expected to add $5 trillion to the American debt total, and real interest rates could stay negative; all of the makings of an inflationary environment, which would be great for gold.

 

Current Exploration Insights Portfolio Position Percentages:

  • 45% Prospect Generators
  • 42% Explorers & Developers
  • 13% Producers

To further summarize Mazumdar, we’re positioning ourselves in high risk / high reward companies, as there aren’t a lot of high quality assets out there and the majors aren’t exploring to replenish their reserves. Therefore, the highest pay back is going to be with those that are exploring for new discoveries, which will eventually be taken over by the major mining companies.

Finally, Mazumdar finishes off his presentation with what Exploration Insights uses for its criteria in picking companies and keeping them within their portfolio:

  • Solid management team
  • District size land packages
  • Companies that have a high potential for M&A activity versus leveraged / optionality
    • Majors are looking for at least 15% after tax IRR
  • Find the fatal flaw as soon as possible and then sell

 

 

I recently had the opportunity to ask Cook some questions about the current gold market, and how he thinks the average investor can tilt the odds in their favour when buying companies in the junior resource sector. Check it out:

 

A Conversation with Brent Cook of Exploration Insights

Over the last ten years, I’ve used a number of different financial products to try to give myself an edge in junior resource speculation. I believe it’s tremendously important for people to match their own investment persona with the financial product that they’re going to be using.

What do I mean by matching your investment persona with financial products? Specifically, in the context of the junior resource sector, which is about as risky as it gets, various financial products offer varying risk levels to the investor.

Last fall, I wrote two articles on this concept. The first article, Risky Business, reviews the varying levels of risk by company type in the junior resource sector. They range from the highest risk, which is an exploration company, to the lowest risk, which is a metal streaming company.

The second, Financial Products & Your Investing Persona, covers five questions that I believe people should ask themselves before purchasing a financial product, such as a newsletter.

 

The Exploration Insights team is very strong and I believe it provides great bang for your newsletter buck. Without further ado, here’s my conversation with Brent Cook:

Brian: When I recently attended the Metals Investors Forum (MIF) and the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC), I was pleasantly surprised by the amount of optimism currently circulating among company personnel and investors. One company executive said to me, “financings are being over-subscribed and investors are responding positively to good news releases…these are the hallmarks of a bull market.”

Most of 2016 was very good to those invested in gold and gold stocks, but by August, some of those gains started to be eaten away by a correction. Now, at a historically strong segment of the year for gold, in your opinion, will the gold market begin its next march up?

Brent: There are two driving forces behind the gold price right now. The first is, unfortunately, global tensions and political uncertainty. The gold price is tied to the US dollar and my suspicion is that as Trump reels out of control, confidence in the US dollar wanes pushing the gold price higher in US dollar terms.

The second catalyst Joe and I see is that the mining companies are becoming increasingly anxious to replenish their reserves. On the whole, the gold mining industry has been producing in the order of 90 million ounces a year, yet finding less than half that per year. This is a long term issue that we think will positively impact the more competent junior explorers.

So I expect the gold price to be higher by year end.

 

Brian: At the VRIC, I was able to catch the Newsletter Writer panel with yourself, Louis James, Frank Curzio and Benj Gallander. During the panel, you mentioned that you are passionate about mineral discovery and that finding the best exploration companies is your specialty.

For the average investor, picking an exploration company is a daunting task because, statistically, exploration companies have a 1 in 1000 chance of finding an economic discovery. With the odds seemingly stacked against us, in your opinion, how does the average investor tilt the odds in their favour when picking an exploration company?

Brent: Good question, but not an easy answer. The stated odds of 1 in 1,000 take into account all the prospects that are receiving any attention. The majority of these prospects are worthless and can be screened out with a minimal amount of due diligence. So the odds are really not that long.

Our job is to narrow the 1,500 or so exploration companies down to about 100 using some basic geology, looking at management, share structure and the ability to fund exploration. From that 100, it comes down to finding the fatal flaw in a property or company.

 

Brian: News Releases with drill results, soil sampling, tilling or geophysical surveys can be confusing for the average investor, however, some still want or need to digest the information themselves.

In your experience, is there a straightforward way (or a checklist of sorts) for the average investor to synthesize the information and identify what’s most important?

NOTE: The Exploration Insights website does have a Drill Hole Interval Calculator here.

Brent: Some basic questions any speculator should ask are: Does the geologic setting offer the potential for a significant discovery, meaning can the conceptual target realistically cover the exploration and capex costs. Usually it can’t.

Metallurgy, or metal recovery, is also a big question that has to be answered as soon as possible. If you can’t get the metal out of the rock economically, the property is of no value. There are of course many more red flags and fatal flaws to watch for. We have a free report on Fatal Flaws available to anyone interested—just contact us via our website, Explorationinsights.com, and request the report.

I have found that too many companies or geologists don’t have a real sense of what they actually need to find in terms of grade/tonnes to cover the exploration and development costs. There is too much “dreaming” in this industry.

 

Brian: In many presentations, you have stated that we are losing the equivalent of a Carlin Trend in gold production each year, and the odds of replacing these lost ounces is almost hopeless, at this rate.

Is there a frontier left in the world that has yet to be explored, or an area that still holds a lot of potential for economic mineralization?

Brent: It is getting harder and harder to make an economic discovery. Most of the politically accessible ground has been explored pretty well, and outcropping ore bodies are few and far between. That means that the industry has to look under cover, drill deeper and spend more time analyzing the data. Because most new discoveries are going to be deeper, all the costs of exploration through development are higher, therefore, your hurdle to profitability is higher and odds of success lower.

Regarding places to look, most new deposits will be found in known belts like the Andes, Tethyan belt, Canadian and Australian shields, Western US and West Africa. The most prospective ground in the world, for the most part, resides in countries that end in –stan.

 

Brian: For the average investor, I think the geological side of the junior company analysis is the hardest to understand and put into practice.

For the investor looking to increase their knowledge of economic geology, are there any resources that you would recommend (books or videos)?

Brent: Our letter tries to educate subscribers on the details of geology and mining and the Fatal Flaws report is useful. The Northern Miner has a good introductory book. We have listed a number of sites and books under the “Links” section of our website

 

Brian: I, personally, feel that the Exploration Insights newsletter is the BEST bang for your buck in the industry.

When someone subscribes to Exploration Insights, what can they expect? In  your opinion, what are the greatest takeaways? And where can someone go to find more information on subscribing?

Brent: Thanks, Joe and I try.

Exploration Insights is about what we are buying, selling and avoiding with our money. We only receive money from subscriptions and our trading. Because it is our money on the table, we are very cautious in this very risky sector.

Exploration Insights comes out every Sunday and we put out comments and alerts if something notable happens during the week. When we buy a stock we lay out our investment thesis and expectations. We track the company’s progress and continually re-evaluate our thesis. We also discuss various aspects of the industry that we think will provide context and background to help subscribers with their own speculations.

 

The gold bull market will be full of volatility, but investors who are able to control their emotions and buy during the dips will see tremendous success in the years ahead. Controlling your emotions is just one way to tilt the odds in your favour. Cook covers a few other important questions to ask yourself, both when examining companies for possible speculation or reviewing the news releases put out by the companies you already own.

Cook and Mazumdar have a tremendous amount of knowledge and experience to share. Arming yourself with top notch financial products like Exploration Insights is key to maximizing gains in the most volatile sector in the world – junior resources.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review, become a Junior Stock Review VIP now, for FREE!

 

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review